Kekhawatiran Terbesar Saya Tahun 2013

Written by administrator   // January 29, 2013   // Comments Off

?The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.? Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin.? But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.?

-Ernest Hemingway

?Inflation is like sin; every government denounces it and every government practices it.?

-Frederick Leigh-Ross

Bank-bank sentral besar dunia saat ini tengah melakukan permainan yang sangat berbahaya. Mencoba untuk mengelola ekspektasi inflasi namun terus mengejar kebijakan yang akan mendongkrak? inflasi sudah tentu akan banyak menimbulkan volatilitas di pasar tahun ini.

Meskipun Ben Bernanke telah mempertahankan suku bunga AS mendekati nol, inflasi belum menjadi masalah besar sejak krisis keuangan tahun 2008. Dan banyak pengamat memperkirakan inflasi masih akan stabil.

Masalahnya adalah bahwa bank-bank sentral dunia juga terus menambah pasokan uang. Cina terus menambah pasokan uangnya, Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) melakukan pembelian obligasi pemerintah negara-negara anggotanya yang bermasalah serta Inggris yang seperti AS melakukan ekspansi pasokan uang hingga senilai hampir seluruh hutangnya untuk menutup defisit anggaran.

Dan yang tak kalah penting, jangan lupa adanya perubahan besar di tahun 2013 yang terjadi di Jepang, dimana pemerintahan baru di bawah kepemimpinan PM Abe telah mendesak bank sentral?BoJ?untuk melakukan pembelian obligasi pemerintah lebih lanjut dalam rangka mendorong target inflasi hingga 2%.

Semua langkah mencetak uang tersebut dalam jangka panjang kemungkinan besar akan mengakibatkan tingkat?INFLASI LEBIH TINGGI. Oleh karena itu, saya berpendapat akan lebih baik untuk menghindar dari obligasi jangka panjang dan tetap menjaga kekayaan Anda dalam aset seperti emas, perak, komoditas dan ekuitas yang terkait dengan komoditas.

Sebaiknya selalu ingat bahwa inflasi memiliki cara penampakan seperti seolah sebagai suatu ancaman jauh sebelum kemudian muncul menyelinap tiba-tiba dan mulai mendorong harga naik. Jadi terlepas dari seberapa cepat atau lambat para hantu inflasi menyelinap, yang terbaik saat ini adalah untuk mempersiapkan inflasi dalam portofolio Anda?SEKARANG.

Untuk memberikan Anda pandangan mengapa inflasi bisa menyerang tiba-tiba dan seberapa parah akibatnya, berikut adalah tiga laporan Tyler Durden dari?www.zerohedge.com:

1)?Peak Monthly Inflation In 1945 Hungary: 12,950,000,000,000,000% And Other Hyperinflationary Facts?(June 15, 2012)

 

For some reason, whenever people want to make a historical example of a hyperinflationary period, they always bring up the Weimar Republic, aka Germany in 1920-1923. Yet with a highest monthly inflation of just under 30,000%, Weimar was a true walk in the park compared to the 309,000,000% monthly inflation in 1992-1994 Serbia, but especially to the?12,950,000,000,000,000%?inflation that Hungarians had to deal with in the aftermath of WWII. For these and more? comparative examples of hyperinflation, particularly relevant now that the entire world is rumored (for now) to be getting ready to print, see below.

2)?803 Years of Global Inflation?(September 4, 2012)

 

Spot the point in this 803 year timeline of world inflation, when the Fed was created.

The chart above comes courtesy of Jim Reid?s fantastic ?Journey into the Unknown? which we will dissect in much more detail shortly. For now we wanted to bring our readers attention to what is arguably the most important aspect of modern monetary times: the advent of persistent inflation, and the disappearance of deflation.

Figure 18 shows median global inflation first from 1209 (left) and then from 1900 (right). As we?ve discussed in previous notes inflation took on a totally different persona after the start of the twentieth century. The charts are again on a log scale to allow us to easily see the near exponential increase in inflation over the last 100 years or so, especially relative to what occurred before. Note that had we used average instead of median, the chart would look almost absurd given the extreme levels of hyperinflation seen in several? countries over the last century. The data behind the graph is based on a full set of 24 countries where we have inflation data back to 19001. Prior to this many countries have data that goes back several decades with some back through the centuries. We have? included data as and when it becomes available.

 

It?s not just the general trend of higher prices, it?s the fact that even single years of deflation have been increasingly hard to find globally over the last century. Figure 20 shows the same data set as used above but shows the median YoY inflation back to 1209 (left) and over the shorter period since 1800 (right).

Prior to the twentieth century years of deflation were almost as common as years of inflation. However as discussed above, this all changed over the last 100 years or so. Indeed we haven?t seen a year of deflation on this median Global YoY measure since 1933. So we?ve now had nearly 80 years without a global year on year fall in prices.

 

Figure 21 extends this analysis showing the percentage of countries in our sample with a negative YoY inflation print and the total number of countries in our sample each year. The number of countries in annual deflation has certainly fallen over the last 100 years and particularly since the Gold Standard link was broken in 1971. Indeed since 1987 no more than 2 countries (out of the maximum 24 in our sample) have seen deflation in any one year and in most cases one of these two countries was Japan.


So although the last 30 years has been a period where inflation was perceived to be under control across the globe, there has generally been a persistent positive bias not seen through longer-term history. The break with Gold has ensured that countries can mostly ensure they don?t have deflation by being free to conduct money creation policies.

Although the hyperinflation list perhaps isn?t 100% inclusive, the trend is absolutely beyond dispute. The 1980s and 1990s saw the vast majority of the examples of these occurrences through history. Although all these have been outside of the developed world, this region has also seen many countries with high inflation over the period and with wide divergence between countries.

Much more coming: in terms of both Reid?s report, and inflation.

3)?Guest Post: Inflation Since The American Revolution?(January 7, 2013)

 

Via Michael Krieger of?Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

 

As is clear by this chart, inflation was virtually unheard of until the?Creature from?Jekyll Island?(the Federal Reserve) took over.? However, more importantly, things didn?t really start to get bad until the 1970?s right after?Nixon took the nation off the gold standard?in 1971.? Since that time, America has seen?a period of non-existent real wage growth?and a huge gap grow between the rich and the poor ever since.? Nothing like livin? the debt slave dream!

Saya kira sebagian besar pembaca secara pribadi belum pernah mengalami hiperinflasi, oleh karenanya berikut saya persembahkan beberapa gambar yang menunjukkan apa yang terjadi ketika inflasi bergerak di luar kendali dan mengikis daya beli mata uang:

Terakhir saya punya sebuah lelucon agar Anda tetap ceria menjalani hari ini:

The Banker and the Frog

A banker was walking in the park one day when she noticed a large frog sitting along the side of the pond.

As she was walking by, the frog suddenly piped up and said, ?Excuse me? but? ummm? would you happen to be a banker??

The banker responded, ?Why yes, I am a banker.? Why do you ask??

?Well,? says the frog, ?I was a forecasting economist, and my forecasts didn?t turn out so well.

The CEO I worked for put a smell on me and turned me into a frog.? The spell can be broken if a

banker will kiss me.? Then I can return to being a forecasting economist.?

The banker paused for a moment, then reached out, picked up the frog, put him in her purse, and began walking along.

After a few minutes the frog piped up, ?Hey, what are you doing?? If you will just give me a kiss I can walk along on my own and you won?t have to carry me.?

The banker stopped, looked down at the frog, and said, ?True? but you?re worth a lot more to me as a talking frog than as a forecasting economist.?

Selamat menjalani hari ini dan semoga beruntung!

 

Sumber: Blog Kontan — Nico Ormer


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