Investor Emas Jangan Putus Asa (Bagian II)

Written by Denny   // February 12, 2013   // Comments Off

“Given the fact that there’s so much paper gold out there relative to the limited amount of physical, eventually you’re going to see the final stage of a monetary collapse or financial collapse, which always happens throughout history. People eventually move out of financial assets and they move into gold because what they want to do is they want to avoid counterparty risk. When you have a financial asset, you’re always depending upon someone’s promise. But when you own physical metal – be it gold or be it silver – you’re not dependent on someone’s promise, because you have a tangible asset. There isn’t a counterparty risk.”

-James Turk

NO-1

“Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold.”

-Leo Tolstoy

Salah satu alasan utama mengapa para investor emas jangan berputus asa adalah fakta bahwa Cina seolah tidak perduli hari esok dan masih terus membeli logam mulia tersebut. Jika Anda perlu bukti-bukti, maka silahkan baca laporan berikut yang dibuat oleh Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang berjudul “China Imports Record Amount Of Gold In December On Price Drop”:

“Back in December, as always happens every year for the past 3, a margin call driven liquidation wave pushed the price of the gold to multi-month lows, providing merely yet another lowball buying opportunity (for which let’s all thank John Paulson, again). One buyer who certainly would love to thank whichever marginal seller was liquidating their gold, is none other than China, which as was reported a few hours ago, imported an all time record 114.4 tons of gold in the month of December, or more than all the gold held by the Greek central bank (assuming it hasn’t been confiscated by ze Germans or the ECB, or deposited in G-Pap or Venizelos’ private HSBC safe in Geneva yet: a very aggressive assumption).

NO-2

This means that for all of 2012, total China imports of gold have hit a staggering 834.5 tons, double the 431 tons in 2011, and that the PBOC’s determination, whose official holdings are still a laughable 1054 tons, when in reality they are likely 3-4 times greater, to convert to a commodity-backed currency the day it decides to become the world’s reserves currency, as we predicted back in 2011, is as steadfast as ever. Recall from the December 2009 edition of China Youth Daily, which we reported previously that State Council advisor Ji was saying “that a team of experts from Beijing and Shanghai have set up a “task force” last year to consider growing China’s gold reserves. “We suggested that China’s gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in 8-10 years,” the paper quoted him.”

This was in 2009. It is safe to say that the official (not reported) Chinese gold holdings are now around 4-5,000 tons, or 4x-5x more than the IMF number.

In the meantime, China’s 2012 gross gold imports alone (ignoring its massive internal production, which happens to be the world’s largest gold producer), have surpassed all of Japan’s official gold holdings, and were just shy of Russia’s and Switzerland’s total official gold.

NO-3

More from Bloomberg:

The imports in December compared with 90,764 kilograms in November, and were more than double the 38,650 kilograms a year earlier, according to the data. Net imports, after deducting flows from China to Hong Kong, were 84,687 kilograms in December from 61,787 kilograms a month earlier. China doesn’t publish such data.

China was expected to displace India as the world’s biggest gold consumer last year, according forecast in November from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Rising consumption in the country may help to offset concern that the metal’s bull run may be coming to an end as the global economy recovers. Spot gold is little changed so far this year, while the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of raw materials has risen 4.4 percent.

The increase in gold imports last year “was largely a result of income growth,” Jiang Shu, a senior analyst at Industrial Bank Co. Ltd., said from Shanghai before the data was released. “The Chinese are becoming wealthier.”

Economic growth in China, the world’s largest gold producer, has boosted the country’s consumption of everything from copper to energy and farm commodities. The nation, which snapped a seven-quarter slowdown in the final quarter of last year, is the world’s largest base-metals user, the biggest importer of soybeans and the top crude-oil consumer after the U.S.

“We see demand continuing to be robust into 2013,” said Wang Xiaoli, chief investment strategist at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China’s biggest listed brokerage. “The economy will recover, albeit slowly, while real interest rates will remain low and central banks will continue to accumulate. These are all bullish for gold.”

And all this with inflation in China still supposedly tame. Just wait until the trillions in new money created in 2013 finally find their way to the Chinese market and send inflation through the roof as happened in early/mid 2011, and when gold exploded. Once the increasingly more affluent Chinese middle class decides to once again lock up its wealth in the form of gold, then and only then, will gold finally cross the so far insurmountable $2000 resistance level.”

Berikutnya Egon von Greyerz, seorang pendiri dan managing partner Matterhorn Asset Management, yang beberapa waktu lalu menampilkan salah satu grafik yang paling penting yang mungkin pernah Anda lihat. Kini, dirinya menunjukkan bahaya luar biasa yang dihadapi oleh sistem finansial global, serta menunjukkan alas an mengapa harga emas akan melonjak.

Berikut adalah laporannya, disertai grafik yang menarik dan kejutan harga emas berdasarkan grafik yang berupa kubus tersebut:

“I’ve spoken in the past about bankrupt governments, and the bankrupt banking system. If you value debt in the banking system at market value, then no major bank would be standing today. But in addition to that, if you then look at the derivative positions of the banks, this is a disaster waiting to happen (see chart).

NO-4

The real over-the-counter derivatives outstanding, worldwide, is at least $1.1 quadrillion, and a major part of that is worthless. People have no idea what kind of turmoil and destruction this can cause to the global financial system. Investors need to understand that as the global economy edges closer and closer to collapse, the earthquakes in the financial system will become so enormous that it will eventually overwhelm politicians and central planners.

This is why it is so important that investors protect themselves by holding physical gold and silver outside of the banking system because the coming derivatives disaster will create an explosion in the price of gold. And when the chaos is finally over and a new financial system emerges, gold and silver will be one of the few assets left standing.

Every time there is a problem in a bank it seems to be derivatives related, such as what happened with JP Morgan which recently lost $5.6 billion, and UBS which lost $2.3 billion.

They have young people, many times in their 20s, coming in and having derivatives positions of tens of billions or even one hundred+ billion dollars, and these young people have no idea what they are doing. The individual from UBS, who is now defending himself, said, ‘I just came in to run these positions. I had no idea about this market.’? He is only 27 years old.

So you have inexperienced people taking massive risks, and running positions which amount to an unthinkable total of $1.1 quadrillion….

Every time we look at these positions closely and value them, which is when there is a problem, the banks realize the positions are not worth anywhere close to what they believed they were. The real, underlying problem is that even management at the banks doesn’t understand these derivatives. They don’t know how to value them, so they have no understanding of the true value of the positions.

Many times they are virtually impossible to understand, therefore the traders can value them at whatever they want. Of course they are unregulated and they are not traded on any exchange, and most all of this is held off-balance-sheet. Meaning they are not included on the banks balance sheet.

What the banks do is net down the positions to a very small total because they assume that counterparties will pay. Well, we know when something happens in the banking world, take Lehman as an example, and we will have many more Lehmans in the future, the counterparty doesn’t pay or isn’t able to pay.

What that means is the gross remains the gross, and again, we have an outstanding exposure, worldwide, of an unfathomable $1.1 quadrillion. You also have to realize that there are virtually no reserves against these enormous positions.

This is why investors that hold major assets in banks are taking risks they shouldn’t take. The reality is the banking system is incredibly fragile because of the ongoing risk of the derivatives bubble blowing up at some point. I would add that the risk of this happening is very high in my view.

This is the reason, as I’ve said, that investors have to hold assets outside of the banking system. Let’s take a look once again at the cube chart, just to look at the proportion of outstanding derivatives to gold:

NO-5

You have $1.1 quadrillion of derivatives, and all of the gold ever produced, which is in one corner of the chart, is $9 trillion. If you take the gold said to be held by central banks, which assumes the central banks physically possess the 30,000 tons and I don’t believe they have anywhere near that, but hypothetically speaking, if they did, it is only $1.6 trillion worth of gold.

You can see in the above chart that the central bank gold only fits into a tiny corner of the cube. So what I am saying with this chart is if there is a derivatives blow up, you can only imagine the amount of money that would need to be printed. And, again, I think there is a very high probability of a derivatives blow up taking place.

If you then related the enormous derivative position to the percentage of gold allegedly held by central banks, if gold were to reflect that, you are not talking about gold at $10,000 or $20,000, you are talking about gold well above $100,000 an ounce. This is what investors must focus on in terms of the bigger picture for gold.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Above all, he remains unequivocally bullish on gold and is of the view that the present price action that we have been seeing is very reminiscent of what we saw going into 2007:

“We have long believed that the present pattern on Gold is a consolidation prior to the next impulsive move higher. The charts below suggest the start of that move, which we believe will yield a move towards $2,055-2,060 and then $2,400, may now be “close at hand”. In addition, the set ups on Palladium, Platinum and Silver are all looking constructive.

NO-6

A repeat of the momentum move seen between August 2007 and March 2008 could see Gold approach $2,400 as early as July this year (see two circled areas on chart below).

NO-7

We have seen a low to high bounce of nearly $30 in Gold (recently) completing a bullish outside day (chart below).

This follows a hold of horizontal support and the 61.8% pullback area around $1,625-1,629.? Good resistance is now being tested around $1,695 (Double bottom neckline and 55 day moving average.) A break above here suggests at least $1,755 again.

NO-8

Weekly momentum is turning up from low levels after 3 weeks of indecision (see chart below). Similar indecision was seen in July 2012 before the next leg higher. Above the $1,755 level there is good resistance at $1,763 and most importantly $1,791-1,796. Above this latter range would suggest an acceleration in the move higher to $2,055-2,060 initially and possibly $2,400 this calendar year.”

NO-9

Terakhir adalah analis senior Ron Rosen yang mengirimkan King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) sebuah grafik dan komentar luar biasa pada 21 November 2012 lalu. Berikut ringkasan penting dari prospeknya yang luar biasa terhadap komoditas emas:

“Since the bull market in gold began in the year 2001, a new high took place at every LTD (Long-Term Delta) #4 high. All LTD #4′s were highs. Gold is now moving up to LTD #4 high due February 2014. If gold arrives on the due date and touches the upper trend line the price will be over $3,000 (the arrow in the chart below is pointing to a $3,000+ target for gold by February 2014).”

NO-10

Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id

 


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