Investor Emas Jangan Putus Asa

Written by Denny   // February 9, 2013   // Comments Off

“We remain of the view that gold’s long-term outlook remains bright. It may be the last asset left standing if governments run out of money to spend and central banks run out of money that people believe in. But it doesn’t require Apocalypse to be a sound, long-term investment. The Fed is resuming rapid expansion of the monetary base. Japan will soon be flooding the currency markets with yen. The ECB remains expansionary. The three major currencies are, once again, simultaneously reflating, and promising to stay expansionary until the Promised Land of Prosperity appears on the horizon. U.S. fiscal deficits will continue at rates that would have seemed unacceptable even a few years ago. It is almost impossible to conceive of a more bullish long-term backdrop for gold.”

-Don Coxe

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Banyak investor maupun financial consultant bertanya kepada saya belakangan ini apakah kenaikan komoditas emas sudah berakhir. Ini tentunya bukan pertanyaan yang mengejutkan mengingat harga emas dalam 17 bulan terakhir berada dalam kisaran $1550 hingga $1800 dan sangat choppy.

Oleh karena itu, saya pikir adalah sebuah ide bagus untuk mempersembahkan kepada Anda tulisan yang sangat berimbang oleh James Gruber dari Asia Confidential, mengenai pasar emas di akhir tahun lalu. Tulisannya juga mengandung fakta-fakta penting dari kenaikan pasar emas selama tahun 1970an, sehingga masuk dalam kategori HARUS DIBACA bagi yang ingin belajar dari masa lalu:

“The most common question from subscribers right now is: what’s your view on the falling gold price? As most of you would know, I’ve been an advocate for gold as an asset that should outperform as governments attempt to print their way out of crippling debt problems. In this issue, I’ll explore the likely reasons for recent price declines. I’ll explain why the odds favor a correction of 30% or more at some point in this cycle. That point could well be now. But I’ll also try to show why the current gold bull market is far from over and you should expect much higher prices before it’s through.

Why the pullback?

I read somewhere once that your views on gold often reflect your personality. Those that are pessimistic, conspiratorial, survivalist or suspicious of authority tend to hold a favorable view towards the metal. Whereas people who are more optimistic etc. generally have no time for gold. I’m not a convert to this theory but there could be a pinch of truth to it, if recent commentary on the falling gold price is anything to go by.

The first reaction by many gold observers has been denial. There seems to have been a genuine degree of shock that when the Fed announced QE4, gold was flat on the day and has since declined. These observers had obviously expected gold to soar as per every previous announcement of quantitative easing. Instead of addressing the possible reasons for the price decline, many chose to simply ignore it or restate platitudes about a still upward price trend for gold.

The second reaction to the falling gold price has been all too predictable: it’s a conspiracy. The Fed has been keeping the price down to make its actions look better. Goldman Sachs has been helped the Fed to achieve its aims. The Chinese have been pushing the price lower so they can buy more at a better price. A handful of high frequency traders now control the world’s markets and they’ve been responsible for the lower gold prices. All manner of conspiracy theories have been put forward as possible explanations.

Chris Martenson from the Peak Prosperity newsletter reflects much of the conspirator thinking:

“The markets are now well and truly broken. Not because they don’t conform to my predictions, but because they are no longer sending useful price signals. Instead, my hypothesis here is that the markets are now just a giant and rigged casino, where a handful of big firms and other tightly coupled players are gaming their orders to take advantage of this flood of money.”

This is a cop-out. It’s saying: “If it doesn’t confirm my views, it’s not worth analyzing”. Yes, all markets, including gold, may be rigged to a degree. But it hasn’t stopped gold from rising over 6x since 1999 and won’t stop it going higher if warranted. Ultimately, supply and demand dictate prices, no matter what the conspiracy theorists would have you believe.

Alternative theories for the gold price decline deserve more attention. Goldman Sachs has come out with a big report effectively calling an end to the gold bull market:

“Medium term… the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in real rates on better U.S. economic growth. Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving U.S. growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013.”

This view probably reflects the biggest risk to the gold outlook. If Goldman Sachs is right and you get a fully fledged economic recovery in the U.S. with rising real rates but no serious inflation, gold should struggle in this environment.

As I detailed in last week’s issue though, this scenario seems unlikely when the U.S. government and households still remain significantly over-indebted. Corporate investment won’t be enough to offset the headwinds from government and households having to reduce these debts.

A different take on gold comes from Mark Dow. He suggests the recent price decline is the result of investors coming to realize that QE is ineffective and won’t lead to much higher inflation anytime soon. This view has a lot of merit, though his optimistic conclusions on a U.S. recovery differ from mine.

I’ll detail more of my own views later, but let’s first step back a bit and analyze the recent gold price action in greater detail.

Putting it into context

The gold price reached an all-time of US$1,924/oz in September last year. Since that time, it’s dipped to US$1,522/oz in May before rising and then falling to the current US$1,648/oz.

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Source: Bloomberg

The low reached in May was a 21% decline, top to bottom. We are now 14% from that 2011 all-time high.

You can see from the above chart that gold has been in a consolidation phase, in technical jargon, for 15 months. And how important it is for gold to hold above the May lows from a technical perspective. The recent correction isn’t as severe as the 2008 correction of 29% or the 2006 correction of 22%.

Corrections of +30% during bull markets is more common than not. During the 1982-2000 U.S. bull market, the U.S. market had many corrections along the way, including a 34% correction in 1987. It didn’t stop that bull market.

And gold itself corrected 47% from 1974-1976 before rising more than 8x to US$887/oz in 1980.

The point is that the current correction isn’t unusual and isn’t severe. And a more serious correction in gold at some point, perhaps now, could happen before the final phase of the bull market begins.

Warning signs

There are a couple of danger signs that the current correction could get more serious. Until the past fortnight, it’s clear speculators had been piling into gold. This is best reflected in open interest on the CFTC – these are the number of open gold futures and option contracts.

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Source: Bloomberg

Recently, the number of call options – betting on a rising gold price – outnumbered put options – betting on the opposite – 2:1. And separately, gold ETF holdings reached all-time highs, with more than US$150bn in total.

The other danger sign is the accumulation of gold by the world’s central banks. Many gold bulls understandably view this as positive, with increased demand for the metal. But I view it as a potential contrary signal as central banks have a bad habit of making poor bets. You only have to hark back to Great Britain’s mass sale of gold in 1999 to understand this.

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A sharper correction would shake out a lot of this recent speculation.

Bull market intact

To better understand why I think the gold bull market is far from over, perhaps I’ll venture back in time a bit. My full appreciation for the bull market was formed in 2005 when I switched careers from journalism to finance and joined the Asian brokerage, CLSA.

At CLSA, gold already enjoyed a cult-like status. Well-known strategist, Chris Wood and economist, Jim Walker, were long-time devotees. They nailed the gold bull market, amongst other things. It was at the famous CLSA forums in Hong Kong where I was introduced to well-known gold bulls, Marc Faber and Jim Rogers.

Then in 2010, I joined a fund manager, where holding gold in a portfolio was considered somewhat radical and contrary to a principally stock-picking philosophy.

Since launching Asia Confidential this year, I have read more of the newsletters devoted to gold and had some conversations with some of the authors involved. While there are good gold newsletters out there, many are somewhat extreme, advocating gold because “the world is about to end”.

All of this experience has led me to these conclusions on the gold bull market:

  1. The gold bull market started in 1999.
  2. Over the past century, the average bull market in commodities has lasted 18 years. The shortest has been 14 years.
  3. Money printing to cure over-indebtedness is likely to have disastrous results. History says so.
  4. Deflation or hyperinflation are the probable outcomes. Gold should perform well in both scenarios as money printing will lead to distrust of any currency.
  5. Bull markets always end with parabolic spikes. Gold went up 4x in 13 months in its previous bull market. Expect something similar this time around.
  6. Gold is an asset like any other and should be sold at the appropriate time. The world is not going to end and will get better at some point. Other assets will be better choices when that time comes.

In sum, the recent gold price decline appears a correction in an on-going bull market. A sharper correction seems more likely than not at some point. But the bull market hasn’t ended. One sign that’s we’re close to a market peak will be when a parabolic price spike happens, as per other recent bull markets.

Until then, buying physical gold on further dips is a sensible strategy. Towards the May lows of US$1,522/oz, gold starts to look very compelling value.

For the bold, gold shares appear cheap compared to physical gold. In terms of price per reserves, many gold companies are as cheap as they were in 2001.

Physical silver looks a better long-term investment than physical gold too, given a still relatively depressed silver/gold ratio. Own both precious metals but silver should outperform gold in this bull market.

Mac Slavo dari SHTFPlan.com juga mengingatkan kita mengenai sejumlah peristiwa sejarah yang menarik dalam tulisannya yang berjudul “Get Gold Now: “I Remember 1980 … They Were Lined Up Around the Block”“, dan menjelaskan pandangannya yang mengatakan mengapa pasar emas BELUM mengalami bubble:

“Mainstream financial analysts want us to believe that gold’s unprecedented rise throughout the last decade is almost over – that it is just another bubble soon to pop.

Central banks, state-sponsored economists and many well respected high dollar investors have all tried to convince us that there is no more upside for precious metals, often arguing that the 5,000 year-old relics are but worthless metals – not money.

The interesting thing is they’ve been saying that repeatedly, since before the financial crisis was ever recognized. Yet, gold has continued to rise unabated.

In the following Future Money Trends interview, well respected investment analyst Jay Taylor of MiningStocks.com discusses this powerful trend in gold, the government manipulation of the financial and economic system, the importance of diversifying your wealth, why precious metals are a good investment, some ideas for investors, and the signs you’ll see when gold does finally become a “bubble.”

A lot of the establishment would have us believe gold is already in a bubble.

But if you look at the supply of gold above ground relative to the amount of money that’s been created, it’s money and it’s the bond market that’s in a bubble.

Yes, I suppose that one day that could happen.

I remember 1980, when gold went from $35 a few years earlier to $850.

I remember that time there was panic buying of gold by people in the streets of New York City. They were lined up around the block… to buy gold and Krugerrands at that time.

I don’t see anything like that now.

If I walk down the streets of New York and ask people, “do you think you should have five or ten percent of your portfolio in gold,” most people would say, “No, no way. That’s ridiculous. It doesn’t pay you any interest. Why would you own the stupid stuff?”

So, I think we’re a long way away from that bubble.

I think people in the rest of the world and don’t trust their politicians to the extent that Americans do, are buying gold.

Certainly the Chinese are …

I suppose that we could see a bubble at some time.

I suppose that, as we saw in 1980, there will be huge amounts of people that finally lose confidence and throw in the towel on the policy makers.

And, then there will be a rush to gold like we’ve never seen before.

And when people start to insist on delivery of their gold … for the huge amounts of paper that’s out there in the futures markets… And if those people on the buy side want to take delivery … the price is going to go to the moon. I really believe that.

Via: FutureMoneyTrends.com

As an asset of last resort, precious metals like gold and silver have always been worth something. With the fiscal and monetary policies currently under implementation around the world, along with literally trillions of dollars in unserviceable debt, it wouldn’t take much to set off a panic buying spree in gold.

In the last 30 days, since the Newtown school shootings, panic buying has left gun stores across the country with nothing on their shelves and back-orders of six months or more. Tens of thousands of Americans have been lining up outside of firearms shops and gun shows, grabbing up anything they can get their hands on.

That’s what it looks like when the entire consciousness of a nation suddenly shifts.

That’s what it looks like when hundreds of millions of dollars of capital are rapidly reallocated.

One day in the not too distant future, the people of this country and around the world are going to come to the realization that our governments, central banks and state-sponsored financial institutions have been playing a shell game – that it’s all been one grand manipulation.

Confidence in our government’s ability to manage this crisis will be lost.

When that happens, as Jay Taylor notes, “there will be a rush to gold like we’ve never seen before.” Precious metals dealers and coin shops all over the globe will sell out of inventory.

As we’ve seen with popular assault rifles, ammunition and accessories recently, this shift of capital will lead to almost immediate price increases, and subsequently more public interest and panic buying.

There will be a bubble in gold – perhaps one of the biggest asset bubbles we’ve ever seen.

But we’re not there yet.

When you see lines of anxious shoppers waiting around the block to get in to your local bullion exchange and when stocks in exploration and mining companies jump hundreds of percentage points in just a few weeks time, then you’ll know we’ve reached bubble levels.

If you haven’t acquired some gold and silver assets by then, it’ll be too late.

Get gold now.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Grafik pertama menunjukkan level low tahunan emas selama fase kenaikan pasar emas saat ini.

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Seperti Anda dapat lihat bahwa dalam seluruh fase kenaikan harga emas selama 12 tahun, level terendah yang dicapai Januari terjadi 7 kali, dan hanya sekali dicapai setelah April, yakni pada krisis global tahun 2008. Jadi … apakah kita sudah melihat level low untuk tahun ini atau masih akan ada penurunan lebih rendah lagi ke depannya?

Apapun yang terjadi pada harga emas dalam jangka pendek, Dominic Frisby dari MoneyWeek meyakini bahwa ‘fase konsolidasi’ akan segera berakhir. Untuk lebih jelasnya silahkan baca sejumlaj paragraph terpenting di bawah ini dari tulisannya yang berjudul: “Could gold be about to see a massive break-out?:

“On another positive note, gold data-wrangler Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com pinged me an email yesterday which I’d like to share with you. Laird is bullish. He cites a chart pattern from Robert Edwards and John Magee’s classic Technical Analysis of Stock Trends – the consolidation, the break-out, the re-test and then the major run.

Below is the chart Nick sent me. It is of gold since 2007. Take a look at it – then I’ll try to explain the lines he has drawn on it.nico6

Looking first at 2008, you can see the period of consolidation from early in the year as gold fell from just over $1,000 to $680. When gold broke above the two falling black diagonal lines, this was ‘the break-out’. The inverted red ‘V’ marks the re-test.

We then had that wonderful, two-year ‘major run’ all the way to $1,920 an ounce, as marked by the rising green diagonal line.

Now to the current situation. Laird feels we have had the ‘consolidation’. The move above the two falling black diagonal lines in September 2012 was the ‘break-out’. The inverted red ‘V’ marks the ‘re-test’ – which ended a few days ago.

Next comes the ‘major run’.

Here are Laird’s words: “Theoretically, this buy point is a big one. We did the consolidation wedge from 2011 through to September 2012 and then broke out. We have just seen the test of the breakout and, ideally, this now should be the beginning of a new major leg up similar (and bigger) than the one from 2009-2011″

“Last time we went from $700 up to $1,900. This move should be larger and over a shorter time period. This is classic technical analysis, especially over a two-year formation. A breakout will be followed by gasps of surprise.”

Terkahir adalah Chris Vermeulen dari www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com yang menjelaskan bahwa dirinya sedang mencari tanda-tanda bottom emas pada grafik harian agar bisa memperoleh keuntungan lebih awal dan dapat secara aktif memelihara posisinya lebih maksimal sampai gerak rebound atau rally mendorong terjadinya breakout.

Yang baik yang bisa kita lakukan saat ini adalah menantikan suatu reversal untuk gerak naik sebelum kita aktif mengambil posisi.

Berikut adalah 2 grafik menarik dan artikel yang berjudul Precious Metals & Miners Making Waves and New Trends, beserta komentar-komentarnya:

“The precious metals sector has been dormant since both gold and silver topped in 2011. But the long term bull market remains intact. As long as we do not have the price of gold close below the lower yellow box on the monthly chart then technical speaking precious metals should continue much higher.

Large consolidation periods (yellow boxes) provide investors with great insight for investments looking forward 6-18 months upon a breakout in either direction (up or down). The issue with investing during these times is the passage of time. One can hold a position for months and sometimes years having their investments fluctuate adding extra stress to their life when they really do not need to.

Once a breakout takes place a powerful rally or decline will start putting an investors’ money to work within days of committing to that particular investment compared to money invested waiting months for the breakout and new capital gains to occur.

Gold Price Chart – Monthly

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Gold Price Chart – Daily

The chart of gold continues to form a large bull flag pattern with a potential 3 or 5 wave correction. If price reverses this week and breaks above the upper resistance trend line then it will be a 3 (ABC) wave correction which is very bullish. But there is potential for a full 5 wave correction which is still bullish, but it just means we have another month or two before metals bottom.”

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Terakhir yang tak kalah penting, saya akan akhiri artikel ini dengan mengetengahkan sejumlah gambar dan pantun jenaka dari William Banzai, yang memiliki pesan untuk Bundesbank dari Bendito Ben:

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Bendito is spilling the beans
The Bundesbank knows what this means
Their gold is all gone
A Central Bank con
Akin to their printing machines

The Limerick King

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Ponzi can surely attest
The gold in the vault is the best
But then he checked leases
For 10 times the pieces
And said: “Now I’m really impressed!!!”

The Limerick King

Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id


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