‘Gold Bugs’ Harus Lebih Bersabar Lagi

Written by Denny   // November 20, 2013   // Comments Off

“I would say gold is now poised to go much, much higher than any potential downside, and so the risk/reward is very favorable as I see it right here. One of the major things that is getting in the way is a real market value play. The US dollar is still relatively strong vs. other fiat currencies, and when the dollar is strong it gets in the way of gold being an outlet for all fiat holders across the globe. The impulsive move is to go out of euros, yen, rand, or whatever it may be, and into dollars rather than going straight into gold. When the dollar is strong, when there is flight into the dollar as there has been recently, it implies there is no immediate need to have gold ascend as the sovereign currency.”

 – Paul Brodsky, co-founder of QB Asset Management

Nico-16

Apakah penurunan harga emas akan berlanjut lebih jauh?

Perilaku pasar belakangan ini menjelaskan semuanya.

Meskipun para investor menggoyang bursa saham ke sisi negatif dan positif beberapa hari ini, tidak demikian dengan harga emas yang gagal mempertahankan kenaikan sebelumnya dan justru kembali berada di bawah level support penting $1300.

Saya sarankan agar Anda perhatikan dengan seksama harga emas pekan ini, karena jika gagal naik kembali ke atas $1300 maka tekanan jual lebih besar akan menantinya.

Melangkahlah dengan hati-hati saat ini, saya perkirakan tekanan jual akan meningkat di kuartal terakhir 2013 ini jika emas terus bertahan di bawah $1300.

Jadi meskipun periode November hingga Januari biasanya merupakan periode terkuat untuk harga emas, seperti yang Anda lihat pada grafik di bawah ini, kewaspadaan diperlukan:

Nico-17

Hari ini saya punya sejumlah laporan luar biasa untuk Anda, yang tentunya dengan sejumlah grafik menarik, namun sebelumnya saya ingin mengingatkan ke Anda bahwa emas dalam jangka panjang mungkin akan  menjadi salah satu aset terbaik yang akan mempertahankan kekayaan Anda.

Ronald-Peter Stoferle dari Incrementum AG Lichtenstein di akhir Oktober lalu kepada King World News (www.kingworldnews.com) memberikan 2 grafik dan laporan menarik yang menjelaskan mengapa emas akan meningkat sebagai mata uang utama dunia.

“If you can’t explain it to a six-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself.”  Albert Einstein

What is the major virtue of gold in contrast to paper currencies?  From our point of view, the current and future purchasing power of money not only depends on how much is available now, but also on how the quantity is expected to change over time….

The supply curve of gold changes only incrementally every year.  While scrap supply is volatile and sensitive to price changes, mine production is extremely inelastic.  Having a look at the following chart, one can see this “relative scarcity” of gold.  Since 1868, the average annual “gold inflation” was only 2.1 %, while the monetary aggregate M2 grew at 6.6%.  Moreover, M2?s historical volatility was also far higher, it ranged from minus 15.6% to plus 26%, while that of gold ranged only between 1.4% and a maximum of 3.5%.

See Maximum, Minimum and Average Rate of Change of Gold versus Money Supply M2: 1868 to 2011 Below:

Nico-18

Now what does this actually mean?  If the annual mine production were to double (which is highly unlikely from our point of view), this would translate into an annual increase of only 3% in the supply of gold.  This is still a very minor inflation of total gold reserves, especially compared to current rates of dilution of paper currencies.

We always remarked that the extremely high stock-to-flow ratio is the most important characteristic of gold.  The aggregate volume of all the gold ever produced comes to about 172,000 tons.  This is the stock.  Annual production was close to 2,700 tons in 2012.  That is the flow.  Dividing the former by the latter, we receive the stock-to-flow ratio of 64 years.

Nico-19

I therefore assume that gold is not so precious because it’s scarce, but because the opposite is true: gold is precious because the annual production is so low relative to the stock.  This stability and security is a crucial precondition for creating confidence.  Gold has acquired this feature over centuries, and cannot lose it anymore.

“It’s all about relative supply curves – the supply curve for bullion is far more inelastic than is the case for paper money.  It really is that simple.” David Rosenberg

What Do the Charts Say?

Selain itu, ada 3 laporan lagi yang akan menjelaskan kepada Anda mengapa harga emas masih akan turun lebih jauh dari levelnya saat ini.

Yang pertama adalah Adam O’Dell dari Ahead of the Curve, yang menyatakan masih ada penurunan 25% lagi pada harga emas:

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

 “Yes, gold’s drop still has further to go.

For one, bubbled markets nearly always return to the price they were prior to the bubble forming. That puts gold futures at least as low as $500, where they traded in 2003.

And some Fibonacci analysis shows that even the minimum pullback expected from the prior bull market has not yet been accomplished. Take a look…

Nico-20

Gold’s dead cat bounce at $1,200 per ounce wasn’t all that surprising. The shiny metal had dropped nearly 40% in less than two years and $1,200 per ounce was the 50% Fibonacci retracement level… a natural place for gold’s downward spiral to take a breather.

As you can see above, the next stop on this train-ride to the bottom is the $1,000 to $1,050 per ounce range. This represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and a support level based on price patterns that emerged in 2008 and 2009.

That puts about us $330 per ounce, or a 25% drop, below the current price. I think we’ll easily hit this target in 2014.”

Kedua dari Dominic Frisby dari MoneyWeek mencoba menjelaskan pergerakan emas berikutnya:

“MoneyWeek magazine’s house view on gold is that you should hold it as insurance – 5-10% in your portfolio.

This is to offer you some protection from the eventual inflation that central bankers are keen to unleash on the world

But what if – like me – you’re rather more exposed to gold than that?

This morning (October 23, 2013) I want to take a look at what’s next for the yellow metal…

Like it or not, the trend for gold is down

When it comes to gold, the technicals and the fundamentals are shouting very different messages.

We’ll start with the technicals – the study of the price. When all is said and done, you can’t argue with the price.

The chart below shows gold since 2006. I have identified the broader trend – the general direction – using blue tramlines. In simple terms, what was heading up, is now heading down.

Nico-21

Long-time readers might remember how I used the 144-day simple moving average (144 DMA) to catch the lows in gold as it moved up between 2008 and 2011. This proved a useful tool.

But it is now working in reverse. As gold trends lower, the 144 DMA is now catching the highs. In the chart below the gold price is in black, and the 144 DMA is in red. Gold’s recent rally above $1,400 an ounce stalled right on it.

Nico-22

Gold’s is currently enjoying a mini-surge. The implication of the above chart is that said surge will fizzle out when gold reaches that 144 DMA, currently at $1,367 and falling.

Nobody wants the gold price to rally more than I do. But I cannot argue with the trend. And, for the moment, that trend is down.

Trends can last for many years. They can defy logic, reason and fundamentals. But they do not go on forever.

Perhaps the June lows of $1,180 marked the bottom. I hope so. It’s possible a new trend is forming now.

But until gold can get above the 144 DMA, and said moving average turns up, and until gold can break above the range identified by the falling blue tram lines in the first chart, it will remain, by my analysis, in a downtrend.”

Yang terakhir yang tak kalah penting ini masuk dalam kategori laporan yang WAJIB DIBACA!! Jordan Roy Byrne, atau sering disebut dengan ‘the Trendsman’, memiliki sejumlah grafik luar biasa yang memberikan ilustrasi mengapa: the gold bear is going to end with a bang.

Sebagai informasi saja bahwa trendsman adalah anggota afiliasi the Market Technicians Association (MTA) dan telah menyelesaikan CMT Program yang menyatakan profesionalitas di bidang technical analysis, jadi memang dia sangat menguasai dan mengetahui apa yang dikatakannya berikut ini:

“For months we’ve been writing about the major bottom to come in precious metals. It appeared we finally saw it in late June as the metals and the stocks surged during the summer. Yet, these markets trailed off in August and it continued into October. The equities were down seven straight weeks. That gave way to an oversold bounce. Unless precious metals can close above their October highs on a weekly basis, the outlook remains bearish. While this bear market is finally coming to an end, don’t expect it to end quietly. At present Gold looks eerily similar to both Gold in 1976 and the SYP in 2009 prior to their major bottoms.

The first chart below shows Gold in 1975 to 1976. Gold’s sudden decline that began in August 1975 took it from over $160/oz down to $128/oz. It was a 20% drop in one month. After it rebounded it formed a marginal new low (A) and traded around $130 for about five months. Once Gold failed at the declining 50-day moving average and lateral resistance it plummeted to its final low.

Nico-23

Gold in 2013 has formed a very similar pattern. The first panic low occurred in April which was followed by another low several months later. Gold then recovered back above the first panic low to point B. Point C labels the decline below the first panic low and a temporary bottom. Just like in summer 1976, Gold rallied up to a strong confluence of resistance (lateral and 50-day moving average) and failed.

Nico-24

I’ve aligned both of the above plots on the same scale starting with their first panic low. The blue is Gold in 1975-1976 and the black is today. The 1976 template has Gold bottoming in early March. However, we can clearly see that Gold today is a few months ahead of that.

Nico-25

Next, take a look at the S&P bottom from 2008-2009. It followed the exact same pattern!

Nico-26

Let’s compare the three situations. In Gold from 1975-1976 its bearish consolidation (from first panic low to failure at resistance) lasted nine months and its final decline lasted two months. In the S&P 500 from 2008-2009 its bearish consolidation lasted only four months and its final decline lasted no more than four weeks. Gold’s bearish consolidation lasted about six and a half months. Judging from this data we could project Gold’s bottom to come in about six weeks.

There are a few more important things to note. Gold from 1975-1976 had a very weak rally from point A to B. It was in a weaker position and then consolidated for the longest. That is why it had the steepest final decline. The S&P in 2009 consolidated for only four months. When it broke to a new low, it made its final low the next week. Like the S&P 500, Gold today had a stronger rally from point A to B. Also, unlike the other two, Gold today has been in a bear market for over two years. Considering these things, I’d expect Gold’s final bottom to be more similar to the S&P in 2009 than Gold in 1976.

Unless Gold is able to close above $1350 in the near-term on a weekly basis then consider the short-term trend bearish. Gold looks set to plunge to its final bottom. Gold bugs will cry manipulation, CNBC and Twitter types will be mocking the Peter Schiffs of the world and many will be calling for $900 Gold. I urge you to avoid all this nonsense and focus on one thing. Get yourself in position to take advantage of this bottom. It’s the very smart money that is looking forward to buying this bottom. I suspect the coming bottom will be the one the typical huge rebounds originate from.”

Conclusion

Grant Williams, seorang portfolio manager di Vulpes Precious Metals Fund, belum lama ini memberikan rangkuman mengenai dimana posisi kita saat ini, dan juga menjelaskan akhir permainan saat sistem moneter hancur:

“If you take everything out of the equation – take manipulation out of the equation, whether it be in bond or currency markets, or the gold market, and you just look at the numbers and the facts, it’s very, very clear that a lot of what’s going on is unsustainable.

The debt and unfunded liabilities are unsustainable. A lot of the banks are insolvent. Anyone who can actually step back and take a level-headed, cold, hard look at the numbers can see all of these things. But at the moment it doesn’t matter.

People are OK saying, ‘Let’s keep this charade going because the reality of it is too painful.’ But at some point you can’t pull the levers anymore, and you can’t move things around, and you can’t cover things up. Ultimately, the numbers are going to matter, and when it comes down to pure, cold, simple mathematics, this is unsustainable.

And when it all goes, I’m afraid it’s all going to go at once because the math is just going to fall like dominoes. And at that point, if you are not sitting there with some gold in your portfolio, all you have left, essentially, are paper assets, and they are going to be worth a lot less than you think they are.”

Personal note: Untuk saat ini saya masih bearish terhadap emas. Dalam 1 hingga 3 bulan mendatang, kita mungkin akan menyaksikan pergerakan harga yang kuat yang akan memberikan kita entry point yang sangat bagus.

Singkatnya, kita perlu menyaksikan dahulu sebuah break out atau pola bottoming sebelum kita masuk posisi ke pasar emas.

Saya tahu bahwa orang-orang sangat ingin memanfaatkan logam mulia karena adanya kembali prospek kenaikan besar, namun kadang menunggu adalah suatu hal terbaik sampai ada indikasi kenaikan sebelum mengambil posisi transaksi baru.

Dan bagi mereka yang ingin membeli emas fisik, jangan sampai potensi penurunan harga emas lebih lanjut ini menghalangi Anda, tapi jadikan ini sebagai peluang yang menguntungkan untuk Anda.

Dengan membeli emas sekarang ini serta bertahap dalam beberapa bulan ke depan, maka Anda dapat mengimbangi dollar-cost Anda ke dalam emas dan menekan biaya serta resiko Anda.

Seperti biasa, di akhir tulisan saya akan mengetengahkan sejumlah gambar lucu agar Anda tetap ceria.

Gambar-gambar berikut menunjukkan bahwa sering hal-hal yang tidak dikatakan justru menjadi masalah…:

Nico-27

Nico-28

(via Sunday Funnies)

 Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

(Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id)


Tags:

Gold Bugs

Nico Omer


Similar posts