Eropa Dalam Situasi Berbahaya (Bagian I)

Written by Denny   // February 13, 2013   // Comments Off

“The governments in Europe sit in the rain and inform everyone that it is sunny. They make up numbers and provide debt to GDP ratios that can only be found in a Hans Christen Andersen fairy tale. The tires are punctured, the transmission is shot, the motor was stolen by the Greeks and yet they assure us that the car will be running momentarily. Politically they are the largest bunch of pimps on Earth and make no apologies for it. Then there is the negative side.”

-Princess, The Sage

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The ECB is going to buy bonds of bankrupt banks just so the banks can buy more bonds from bankrupt governments. Meanwhile, just to prop this up the ESM will borrow money from bankrupt governments to buy the very bonds of those bankrupt governments.”

-Kyle Bass, CEO of Hayman Capital

Jika Anda percaya pada para pembuat kebijakan, bahwa segala sesuatunya sudah ‘diperbaiki’ di Eropa. Maka secara pribadi, saya masih berpendapat bahwa belum ada masalah (yang menyebabkan krisis keuangan) terpecahkan di Eropa. Satu-satunya yang dilakukan para politisi dan para petinggi bank sentral adalah menunda persoalan tersebut terjadi, dan tidak langsung menghadapi persoalan-persoalan yang memang mendesak untuk segera diatasi.

Bahkan Bloomberg baru-baru ini memuat artikel yang menyatakan kekhawatiran bahwa pasar Eropa sudah overvalue (demikian tinggi kenaikannya). Memang faktanya dari persoalan-persoalan tersebut adalah bahwa seluruh sistem perbankan Eropa bangkrut (tidak mampu membayar hutang-hutangnya, atau istilah asingnya adalah insolvency). Tidak hanya ada cara lain untuk menggambarkan suatu sistem perbankan yang memiliki leverage 26 banding 1 dengan aktiva bersih hampir 300% dari PDB (PDB Eropa sebesar $16 triliun sementara sistem perbankannya $46 triliun).

Namun, media-media mainstream memang tidak merinci hal-hal (fakta) seperti itu karena kalau itu dilakukan maka akan menimbulkan panik. Oleh karenanya kita akan melihat bagaimana kekhawatiran yang menyatakan bahwa Eropa sudah ‘overvalue‘ serta ekonomi Eropa harus bangkit karena apa yang dilakukan ECB pada dasarnya sudah melewati batas.

Kita akan melihat media-media yang mengakui bahwa Eropa bangkrut dan sulit untuk mencapai solusi. Faktanya adalah bahwa hal-hal mengenai Eropa yang sudah digambarkan oleh media-media non-mainstream tersebut akan menjadi peringatan bahwa babak baru krisis Eropa bakal terjadi. Baik Spanyol dan Yunani baru-baru ini mengakui bahwa perbankan mereka masing-masing memiliki nilai (value) yang NEGATIF. Diperkirakan data-data dari Eropa di pekan-pekan ke depan akan memburuk. Apa yang terjadi jika pelaku pasar menyatakan apa yang dikatakan Draghi tidak akan terbukti (bluffing). Kita mungkin akan melihatnya tahun ini …

Graham Summers, seorang Chief Market Strategist pada Phoenix Capital Research, baru-baru ini menyatakan bahwa sistem perbankan Eropa akan runtuh lagi. Dengan kata lain, krisis Eropa belum selesai.

Meskipun ECB berusaha untuk mengatasinya dengan menjanjikan pembelian obligasi tak terbatas, rally belakangan ini bisa saja berakhir seketika dalam waktu dekat. Untuk lebih jelasnya, bacalah seksama laporannya di bawah ini, yang berjudul “The Great Systemic Rig of 2012 is Ending“, dan ambillah tindakan pencegahan yang diperlukan:

“Europe’s banking system has been on the ropes for years.
It’s a little known fact that the largest recipients of US bailouts were in fact foreign banks based in Europe. Also bear in mind that the biggest beneficiaries of QE 2 were European banks. Things got so bad in mid-2012 that the whole system lurched towards collapse. The only thing that pulled the EU back from the brink was Mario Draghi’s promise of unlimited bond buying (a promise and nothing more as the EU has yet to do any of this).

However, these efforts, like all cover-ups, will not last. Indeed, by the look of things, Europe’s banking system is breaking down again….

Greece’s four largest banks need to boost their capital by 27.5 billion Euros ($36.3 billion) after taking losses from the country’s debt swap earlier this year, the largest sovereign restructuring in history.

National Bank of Greece SA, the country’s biggest lender, needs to raise 9.8 billion Euros, according to an e-mailed report by the Athens-based Bank of Greece (TELL) today. Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) needs 5.8 billion Euros, Alpha Bank (ALPHA) needs 4.6 billion Euros and Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) needs 7.3 billion Euros, according to the report. Total recapitalization needs for the country’s banking sector amount to 40.5 billion Euros, the report said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-?12-?27/greek-?bank-?capital-…? at-?eu27-?5-?billion-?bank-?of-?greece-?says.html

The above articles tell us point blank that Europe’s banking crisis is neither fixed nor even close to over. However, the numbers need some perspective: sure, 27.5 billion Euros sounds like a lot of money, but just how big is it relative to Greece’s banks.

The entire capital base of the Greek banking system is only 22 billion Euros.

By saying that Greek banks need 27.5 billion Euros Greece is essentially admitting that is needs to recapitalize its entire banking system. Also, you should know that Greek banks are still sitting on 46.8 billion Euros in bad loans.

There is a word for a banking system with a capital base of 22 billion Euros and bad loans of 46.8 Euros. It’sINSOLVENT.

We get other signs that Europe is ready to fall back into the abyss from recent revelations concerning Spain’s sovereign bonds.

In July 2012, Spain’s ten year bond yield hit 8% even though Spain had already been granted a 100 billion Euros bailout by the EU and the ECB had also promised to provide unlimited bond buying.

As a point of reference, remember that any yield over 7% is GAME OVER as far as funding your debt.

Then, starting in August 2012, Spain’s ten-?year bond yields magically began to fall. Since that time, they’ve plunged to just 5%.

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The reason for this drop in yields?

It’s not that Spain’s finances improved (its Debt to GDP ratio hit 85% this year and is on track to reach 90% by the end of 2013). Nor is it that Spain’s economy is recovering (unemployment reached a new record in 3Q12).

It’s not also that investors are less worried about Spain and have decided to buy Spanish debt (Spain just staged a terrible bond rally in early December).

So why were Spanish yields falling?

Spain has been using up its Social Security fund to buy its own debt.

Spain has been quietly tapping the country’s richest piggy bank, the Social Security Reserve Fund, as a buyer of last resort for Spanish government bonds, raising questions about the fund’s role as guarantor of future pension payouts.

Now the scarcely noticed borrowing spree, carried out amid a prolonged economic crisis, is about to end, because there is little left to take. At least 90% of the 65 billion Euros ($85.7 billion) fund has been invested in increasingly risky Spanish debt, according to official figures, and the government has begun withdrawing cash for emergency payments.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873233745045782173840 62120520.html

This is precisely what we mean when we say the system was rigged in the second half of 2012. Spain, a country that is totally bankrupt and likely heading for its own version of the Arab Spring (things are so bad that Spaniards have begun self-? immolating just as they did in Tunisia right before that country suffered a societal breakdown) managed to fool the world into believing that things had improved by raiding its social security fund to buy its own debt.

As we said at the beginning of this issue, the rigging that occurred in the second half of 2012 was simply staggering. But it will end. Our view is that we have perhaps another month or so left at the most before things begin to get ugly again.”

Eropa dapat menjadi benua yang runtuh oleh hutangnya sendiri, dan ini adalah hanya permulaan. Akan lebih banyak persoalan yang akan datang. Para pejabat Eropa berupaya untuk mempertahankan keutuhan sistem finansial Eropa, namun kehancuran bisa saja terjadi kapan saja.

Ekonomi Eropa meledak tepat di depan mata kami dan Eropa yang kemungkinan besar akan berakhir menyeret ke seluruh dunia turun dengan itu. Hanya untuk menunjukkan bahwa Eropa sedang menuju ke dalam depresi besar-besaran ekonomi, berikut adalah 20 fakta tentang runtuhnya Eropa bahwa setiap orang harus tahu, dari laporan yang ditulis oleh Michael Snyder dan awalnya diumumkan di www.theeconomiccollapseblog.com:

Kita dapat menyaksikan ekonomi Eropa runtuh di hadapan kita dan nantinya akan menyeret turun ekonomi dunia. Hanya untuk memperlihatkan kepada Anda bahwa Eropa sedang menuju ke dalam depresi ekonomi besar-besaran, berikut adalah 20 fakta mengenai runtuhnya Eropa yang harus diketahui setiap orang, dari tulisan Michael Snyder yang awalnya hadir di websitewww.theeconomiccollapseblog.com:

“The economic implosion of Europe is accelerating. Even while the mainstream media continues to proclaim that the financial crisis in Europe has been “averted”, the economic statistics that are coming out of Europe just continue to get worse.

Manufacturing activity in Europe has been contracting month after month, the unemployment rate in the euro zone has hit yet another brand new record high, and the official unemployment rates in both Greece and Spain are now much higher than the peak unemployment rate in the United States during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The economic situation in Europe is far worse than it was a year ago, and it is going to continue to get worse as austerity continues to take a huge toll on the economies of the euro zone.

It would be hard to understate how bad things have gotten – particularly in southern Europe. The truth is that most of southern Europe is experiencing a full-blown economic depression right now. Sadly, most Americans are paying very little attention to what is going on across the Atlantic. But they should be watching, because this is what happens when nations accumulate too much debt. The United States has the biggest debt burden of all, and eventually what is happening over in Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece is going to happen over here as well.

The following are 20 facts about the collapse of Europe that everyone should know…
#1 10 Months: Manufacturing activity in both France and Germany has contracted for 10 months in a row.
#2 11.8 Percent: The unemployment rate in the euro zone has now risen to 11.8 percent – a brand new all-time high.
#3 17 Months: In November, Italy experienced the sharpest decline in retail sales that it had experienced in 17 months.
#4 20 Months: Manufacturing activity in Spain has contracted for 20 months in a row.
#5 20 Percent: It is estimated that bad loans now make up approximately 20 percent of all domestic loans in the Greek banking system at this point.
#6 22 Percent: A whopping 22 percent of the entire population of Ireland lives in jobless households.
#7 26 Percent: The unemployment rate in Greece is now 26 percent. A year ago it was only 18.9 percent.
#8 26.6 Percent: The unemployment rate in Spain has risen to an astounding 26.6 percent.
#9 27.0 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Cyprus. Back in 2008, this number was well below 10 percent.
#10 28 Percent: Sales of French-made vehicles in November were down 28 percent compared to a year earlier.
#11 36 Percent: Today, the poverty rate in Greece is 36 percent. Back in 2009 it was only about 20 percent.
#12 37.1 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Italy – a brand new all-time high.
#13 44 Percent: An astounding 44 percent of the entire population of Bulgaria is facing “severe material deprivation”.
#14 56.5 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Spain – a brand new all-time high.
#15 57.6 Percent: The unemployment rate for workers under the age of 25 in Greece – a brand new all-time high.
#16 60 Percent: Citigroup is projecting that there is a 60 percent probability that Greece will leave the euro zone within the next 12 to 18 months.
#17 70 Percent: It has been reported that some homes in Spain are being sold at a 70% discount from where they were at during the peak of the housing bubble back in 2006. At this point there are approximately 2 million unsold homes in Spain.
#18 200 Percent: The debt to GDP ratio in Greece is rapidly approaching 200 percent.
#19 1997: According to the Committee of French Automobile Producers, 2012 was the worst year for the French automobile industry since 1997.
#20 2 Million: Back in 2005, the French auto industry produced about 3.5 million vehicles. In 2012, that number dropped to about 2 million vehicles.

One thing that these shocking numbers cannot convey is the tremendous amount of pain that many average Europeans are living through on a daily basis at this point. To get a peek into what life is like in Greece these days, check out this short excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article…

Anastasia Karagaitanaki, 57, is a former model and cafe owner in Thessaloniki, Greece. After losing her business to the financial crisis, she now sleeps on a daybed next to the refrigerator in her mother’s kitchen and depends on charity for food and insulin for her diabetes.

I feel like my life has slipped through my hands,” said Karagaitanaki, whose brother also shares the one-bedroom apartment. “I feel like I’m dead.”

For thousands of Greeks like Karagaitanaki, the fabric of middle-class life is unraveling. Teachers, salaries slashed by a third, are stealing electricity. Families in once-stable neighborhoods are afraid to leave their homes because of rising street crime.

All over Europe, people that have lost all hope are actually setting themselves on fire in a desperate attempt to draw attention. Millions of formerly middle class Europeans have lost everything and are becoming increasingly desperate.

Suicide and crime are skyrocketing all over southern Europe and massive street riots are erupting on a regular basis.

Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Things are going to get even worse for Europe.

Meanwhile, those of us living in the United States smugly look down our noses at Europe because we are still living in a false bubble of debt-fueled prosperity.

But eventually we will feel the sting of austerity as well. The recent fiscal cliff deal was an indication of that. Taxes are going up and government spending is at least going to slow down. It won’t be too long before the effects of that are felt in the economy.

And of course the reality of the situation is that the U.S. economy really did not perform very well at all during 2012 when you take a look at the numbers. The cold, hard truth is that the U.S. economy has been declining for a very long time, and there are a whole bunch of reasons to expect that our decline will accelerate even further in 2013.

So if you are an American, don’t laugh at what is happening over in Europe at the moment. We are headed down the exact same path that they have gone, and we are going to experience the same kind of suffering that they are going through right now.

Use these last few “bubble months” to prepare for what is ahead. At some point this “hope bubble” will disappear and then the time for preparation will be over.”

What Do the Charts Say?

Melalui gambar lebih mudah menjelaskan semuanya, untuk itu akan ditampilkan sejumlah grafik menarik Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com, yang memberikan penjelasan mengenai kondisi genting Eropa:

1) Europe’s Scariest Heat map (January 9th)

Readers already know that when it comes to Europe, the scariest chart, from a political, economic, financial and social perspective, is that showing youth unemployment – youth, which engaged in idle, non-productive activity is a powder keg for both future economic instability and social upheaval. The monthly update is presented below. This time, we are happy to also present the “scariest heat map” that goes with it, showing the geographic breakdown of unemployment in the critical 15-24 age groups. Those looking for geopolitical hotspots in the coming months and years, look no further than the dark shaded areas.

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Europe’s youth unemployment rate pushed higher once again to a record-breaking 24.4% – where Greece was in Dec 2008. What is crushingly awful is the 57.6% youth unemployment in Greece and 56.5% in Spain that leaves a social fire burning in the belly of the nations. Italy also saw a major move to record highs above 37% youth unemployment and France is now above 27% also… recovery?

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2) TARGET-2 Imbalances – “The Debt Crisis Is Eating Its Way Ever Further Into Europe’s Core”(January 10th)

Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

As Der Spiegel reports, capital flight from Southern Europe has stopped and even slightly reversed in recent months. This is a belated reaction – so it is surmised – to the ‘OMT’ announcement effect.

However, the move is still quite small at this stage, although we suspect that several officially unconcerned central bankers in the ‘core’ are letting out a sigh of relief that their TARGET claims haven’t just risen even further.

“As recently as the summer of 2012, investors and those with savings accounts in crisis-stricken countries were moving their money out as quickly as they could. Billions of Euros were withdrawn from accounts in Greece and Spain and banks in stable countries such as Germany put a cap on the amount of money they were willing to lend business partners in countries hit hardest by the euro crisis.

But since last autumn, this trend has come to a stop. Indeed, the most recent numbers indicate that a slight reversal is underway, with ECB statistics showing that deposits in Spanish and Greek banks have recently ticked upwards. Furthermore, Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, reported this week that imbalances in Europe’s so-called Target2 settlement system, in which euro-zone central banks and the ECB transfer money across the common currency union, have declined. As the euro crisis progressed, the system had become massively imbalanced, which could result in massive losses for countries such as Germany should Greece, for example, be forced to exit the euro zone.

Just prior to the ECB’s massive intervention on the bond markets in August, 2012, the Bundesbank had Target2 claims worth 751 billion Euros ($981 billion). But by the end of December, they had sunk to 656 billion Euros. The imbalance is still dramatic, but the trend reversal provides cause for hope, particularly because it is mirrored by falling debts at the other end of the transfer system. Taken together, the combined Target2 debts owed by Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland shrank from 989 billion Euros at the end of August, 2012 to ?902 billion Euro at the end of October. More current data is unavailable.”

Here is the chart that illustrates the situation:

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The Bundesbank’s TARGET-2 claims versus the TARGET-2 liabilities of the PIIGS as of end October
However, as Hans-Werner Sinn reminds us (Sinn was the first mainstream economist to ring the alarm bell over the growing imbalances in the central bank payments system), the calming of the situation is entirely due to the risks having been shifted, not to the risks having gone away. The ESM with its new power to finance e.g. banks directly, simply shifts more of the risk to taxpayers residing in the ‘core’ countries. Quote Sinn:

“The markets have been calmed because new ways have been found to make taxpayers in those European countries that are still healthy liable,” Sinn says. He is not just referring to the bond purchases that could be undertaken by the ECB – purchases that taxpayers are ultimately liable for. Rather, he is also referring to new rules allowing the crisis backstop fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to provide aid directly to banks.

“The debt crisis is eating its way ever further into the budgets of Europe’s core countries,” he says. “But policymakers are celebrating the obfuscation of this fact as a success.”

He certainly has a point.

3) Forget Europe’s Periphery, The Core Is Collapsing (February 7th)

A glance at headlines over the past few months and there is little mention of anything but Europe’s periphery struggling but market performance implying that a turnaround is about to occur. Most of this is based on a belief that the core is doing ‘well’ and that the periphery is gradually becoming more competitive. However, as if elections were not enough to worry Frau Merkel, it turns out, as Diapason’s Sean Corrigan notes, Germany’s Industrial Production, stymied by a surging EUR, has just suffered its third biggest quarterly decline on record – plunging back to 2007 levels. Furthermore, France’s Industrial Production is back at levels first seen in 1997 – also plunging (perhaps explaining Hollande’s recent exclamations at EUR strength); as the core is starting to soften significantly.

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Charts: Bloomberg

Agar tetap ceria, di akhir tulisan ini saya persembahkan ‘Murphy’s other 15 laws’, yang saya dapat dari www.caseyresearch.com:

1. The thingsthat come to those who wait may be the things left by those who got there first.
2. He who laughs last, thinks slowest.
3. The 50-50-90 rule: Any time you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong.
4. God gave you toes as a device for finding furniture in the dark.
5. Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.
6. Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don’t.
7. When you go into court, you are putting yourself in the hands of twelve people who weren’t smart enough to get out of jury duty.
8. Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine.
9. It is said that if you line up all the cars in the world end to end, someone from California would be stupid enough to try to pass them.
10. Flashlight: A case for holding dead batteries.
11. A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.
12. Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day drinking beer.
13. Nothing is foolproof to a sufficiently talented fool.
14. If the shoe fits, get another one just like it.
15. A day without sunshine is like, well, night.

Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id

 


Tags:

Euro

krisis Eropa


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