Bukankah Sebaiknya Kita Lupakan Saja ‘Taper’?

Written by Denny   // November 2, 2013   // Comments Off

“The bottom line is that all of this means that QE4 is becoming QE5, which will become QE-to-infinity. ‘Banana’ Ben Bernanke will be succeeded by the ‘Queen of the Counterfeiters’ Janet Yellen. There will be no tapering, and if there were to be any small tapering, it will be inconsequential because the Fed is addicted to creating these bubbles in order to bring about this artificial and temporary anemic growth. God help us all because there will be hell to pay when this tragic collapse begins. This will end in total devastation.”

– Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies

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“The question is not tapering. The question is at what point they will increase the asset purchases to say $150 [billion], $200 [billion], a trillion dollars a month. Every government program that is introduced under urgency and as a temporary measure is always permanent. The Fed has boxed itself into a position where there is no exit strategy.”

– Marc Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Pekan ini adalah pertemuan FOMC-The Fed AS untuk melihat arah kebijakan moneter bank sentral AS ke depan.  Perlu dilihat apakah ada perubahan jelas dari pernyataan resmi sebelumnya, dan kemungkinan akan menyatakan bahwa untuk melakukan tapering perlu melihat data-data ekonomi lebih lanjut dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

The Fed AS memang dianggap sebagai potensi yang mengkhawatirkan, karena pasar sungguh bereaksi negatif terhadap sejumlah hal yang berkembang tahun ini, di tengah prospek program stimulus (QE) akan dikurangi atau bahkan akan dihilangkan.

Namun tutupnya (shutdown) sejumlah layanan pemerintahan selama 16 hari sejak 1 Oktober 2013, dan rilis pesimis data ekonomi AS baru-baru ini, membuat the Fed AS cenderung masih akan melanjutkan program stimulus bulanannya tersebut, yang hingga saat ini masih bernilai $85 milyar.

Hasil survey terbaru di sejumlah primary dealers – yang adalah partisipan langsung pada lelang obligasi pemerintah AS – menunjukkan 9 dari 15 yakin bahwa the Fed AS terpaksa akan menunda tapering setidaknya hingga Maret 2014.

Jadi jangan berharap banyak akan adanya kejelasan mengenai langkah tapering di pertemuan pekan ini, meskipun kita belum tahu apakah akan ada rincian atau perkembangan mengenai hal itu.

Lagipula, dalam tulisan 24 September 2013 lalu, saya mengatakan bahwa QE tidak akan pernah berhenti dan terus berlanjut. Untuk hal ini saya memang masih meyakininya.

Seperti dengan jelas dikatakan baru-baru ini oleh Grant Williams, the Portfolio & Strategy Advisor dari Vulpes Investment Management di Singapura, bahwa

“when it came to crunch time, the Fed didn’t have the guts to pull the trigger.”

Dalam media finansialnya: ‘Things That Make You Go Hmmm…’, tertanggal 14 Oktober 2013, Williams menulis bahwa ‘langkah The Fed yang tidak lumrah’ tersebut telah membuatnya jadi bergantung pada QE.

Berikut adalah penjelasannya mengenai The Fed AS, setelah gagal melakukan taper, akan sangat menghancurkan kredibilitasnya:

The Fed has painted itself into an almighty corner with QE, and it looks as though we are finally getting to the point in the process where that fact begins to (a) occur to people and (b) matter.

Bill Fleckenstein has often spoken about the Fed’s reaching the point where it “loses control of the bond market”, and it is quite possible that we are rapidly approaching that point (the signs have certainly been strong in Japan). We may be there already. We won’t know until we can look in the rearview mirror, I’m afraid; but the nonvirtuous circle the Fed has created is extremely clear:

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The simple truth, as you can see from the diagram above, is that the economy and the markets are now 100% dependent on the largesse of the Federal Reserve to sustain them. What you CAN’T see from the diagram is the scary proposition that the Federal Reserve in turn is entirely dependent upon hope to get itself out of this unholy cycle.

The Fed is hoping (as are the ECB, BoE, and BoJ) that the economy recovers sufficiently through massive stimulus so that the recovery will be “self-sustaining”; but, as can clearly be seen by the action of the markets in recent weeks and months, that strategy (such as it is) appears doomed to failure.

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Fortunately, Obama has finally been left with just nominated Janet Yellen as the new Fed chair, and she can be relied upon to continue Greenspan & Bernanke’s work in conjuring unlimited free money out of thin air.

Which is great for the status quo, but if we take another look at that chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield again, we see something that ought to set alarm bells ringing…

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The retracement of interest rates AFTER the Fed’s refusal to follow up their tough talk with a Taper has been far less marked than the rout that ensued after the subject was first tabled; and that spells trouble, because the housing market — the engine of the US “recovery” — cannot stand higher rates without being choked off…

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Well, Janet Yellen might well confound everybody and launch the Taper as her first order of business. Or Buysenberg may even begin it as his last act in power; but either way, the market will now likely call the Fed’s bluff, because it knows that the gun hanging on the wall in the shape of the Taper is not guaranteed to be fired. It may even turn out to be completely superfluous to the narrative; and if that is the case, then chances are it will never be fired.

Just as Walter White’s honest intentions in trying to protect his family ended up trapping him in an ever-worsening spiral where countless millions of dollars only made his situation worse, Ben Bernanke is in a similar prison of his own making.

The Fed realizes the truth of that — hence the abandonment of both the Taper and their own credibility — but their chances of averting catastrophe are receding daily.”

Untuk tulisan Grant Williams lebih lengkapnya, klik di bawah ini…

Ttmygh 14 October 2013

Selanjutnya, seperti biasa, adalah Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com yang memberikan penjelasan mengenai ketidak-konsistenan the Fed AS dalam tulisannya 17 Oktober lalu yang bertema kiss tapering goodbye:

“Just out from Fed “hawk” Dick Fisher:

  • FISHER: FISCAL SHENANIGANS HAVE `SWAMPED’ QE TAPER PROSPECTS
  • FISHER: HARD TO NOW ARGUE TO CHANGE COURSE OF MONETARY POLICY
  • FISHER HAS FAVORED TAPERING FED MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES
  • U.S. FED’S FISHER REPEATS BEST TO ‘STAY THE COURSE’ ON BOND BUYING AT OCTOBER FOMC MEETING

And therein lies the most circular argument of the New Normal.

On one hand “fiscal shenanigans” exist, as does unprecedented Congressional dysfunction, simply because the Fed’s endless intervention in the bond market has now made Fiscal policy both meaningless and ultra permissive. After all, why not fund everything with debt if said debt will be promptly monetized by the Fed, in the process keeping bond yields so low that there is no opportunity cost to reckless spending and making a complete mockery of fiscal prudency. Of course, there will be a price to pay “at the end of the tunnel”, but for now the music is playing and one must if not dance, then issue as much debt as Bernanke, and soon Yellen, will monetize.

On the other hand, it is the same Fed-enabled, broken Congress that now virtually assures a government shutdown every quarter, when the can is repeatedly kicked “3 months down the line”, and which will mean the Fed will be ‘confused’ as there is no government data for weeks on end, making any Tapering discussion impossible. And to the Fed’s benefit and great comfort, it can just blame the same Congress and its “fiscal shenanigans” for its inability to extricate itself from the centrally-planned mess it has made.

Finally, it was notable that Blackrock’s Larry Fink yesterday said he now doesn’t see a Taper until June. At the rate we are going, one can simply kiss the Taper goodbye, which however means that going forward instead of monetizing 0.2% of all 10Year equivalent duration, the Fed’s weekly purchases will extract between 0.3% and 0.5% from the private sector until such time as bond market liquidity is non-existent.”

Dan terakhir dari Peter Schiff dari Euro Pacific Capital yang menjelaskan alasan mengapa nominasi Yellen menyebabkan seluruh ekspektasi QE taper menjadi keliru:

Now that Janet Yellen has been named to lead the Federal Reserve the global financial markets should factor out any possibility that the Fed will diminish their Quantitative easing program anytime during her tenure. In fact, financial forecasts should assume that not only is a taper off the table, but that the QE program is now more likely to be perpetuated and expanded.

Unlike her predecessors, Janet Yellen has never had a youthful dalliance with hawkish monetary ideas. Before taking charge of the Fed both Alan Greenspan, and to a lesser extent Ben Bernanke, had advocated for the benefits of a strong currency and low inflation and had warned of the dangers of overly accommodative policy and unnecessary stimulus. (Both largely abandoned these ideals once they took the reins of power, but their urge to stimulate may have been restrained by a vestigial bias against the excesses of Keynesianism). Janet Yellen, who has been on the liberal/dovish end of the monetary spectrum for her entire professional career, has no such baggage. As a result, we can expect her to never waver in her belief that stimulus is the answer to every economic question.   

The Federal Reserve was originally charged with the single mandate of maintaining price stability. In recent decades that mission evolved into a dual mandate of seeking price stability and full employment. I believe that a Yellen led Fed will return once again to a single mandate, but now it will focus only on employment. Based on her clear beliefs in the ability of dovish monetary policy to relive human suffering she will be inclined to dig in her heels into the ongoing QE program more than anyone else President Obama may have appointed. This is terrible news for the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

For now at least the crisis in Washington has squelched any immediate discussion of a taper in the remaining months of 2013. Any predictions that a Yellen-led Fed will somehow show more resolve towards responsibility in 2014 or 2015 should be looked at as delusional.

Kesimpulan

Kesimpulan kali ini menurut saya sungguh luar biasa yang diambil dari Ben Hunt, Ph.D., yang menyatakan bahwa bahwa QE telah menjadi alat lain untuk mengelola siklus bisnis dan bermacam resiko resesi.

Karena resiko tersebut masih ada, maka kita masih akan melihat QE:

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“In Pulp Fiction the John Travolta character plunges a syringe of adrenaline into Uma Thurman’s heart to save her life. This was QE in March, 2009 … an emergency, once in a lifetime effort to revive an economy in cardiac arrest. Now, four and a half years later, QE is adrenaline delivered via IV drip … a therapeutic, constant effort to maintain a certain quality of economic life. This may or may not be a positive development for Wall Street, depending on where you sit. I would argue that it’s a negative development for most individual and institutional investors. But it is music to the ears of every institutional political interest in Washington, regardless of party, and that’s what ultimately grants QE bureaucratic immortality.

It is impossible to overestimate the political inertia that exists within and around these massive Federal insurance programs, just as it is impossible to overestimate the electoral popularity (or market popularity, in the case of QE) of these programs. In the absence of a self-imposed wind-down plan – and that’s exactly what Bernanke laid out in June and exactly what he took back on Wednesday – there is no chance of any other governmental entity unwinding QE, even if they wanted to. Which they don’t. Regardless of what political party may sit in the White House or control Congress in the years to come, it will be as practically impossible and politically unthinkable to eliminate QE as it is to eliminate Social Security or food stamps. QE is now a creature of Washington, forever and ever, amen.

Di akhir tulisan saya ini, agar tetap ceria, berikut adalah sejumlah gambar dan pantun jenaka dari William Banzai:

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As victims of stimulus mount

This thief must be held to account

He’s bleeding us dry

His victims will die

The number of which he’s lost count

 The Limerick King

 Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

(Sumber: http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/2013/10/30/jangan-hanya-sekedar-melupakan-taper/)


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