Apakah Harga Emas Akan Melesat Terbang?

Written by Denny   // October 22, 2013   // Comments Off

“The Fed is aware that it cannot ever allow interest rates to significantly rise without destroying housing, stocks and the economy. Therefore, this dangerous cocktail of low interest rates, continuous and massive money creation from the Fed and intractable government debt will be in place for a very long time. Unfortunately, those factors taken together will eventually bring to fruition runaway inflation and economic chaos that the perma-bull crowd on Wall Street and Washington have summarily declared vanquished. Once investors become aware that the economy has become completely addicted to the provisions of perpetually low interest rates and central bank asset purchases, the gold market will then resume another leg higher in its secular bull market and eclipse its all-time record high soon thereafter.”

– Michael Pento, President & Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies

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“’The bigger the base, the higher in space’, runs an old stock market saying. Another version is, ‘the longer the wait, the bigger the break’.”

– Dominic Frisby, MoneyWeek

Seperti Anda tahu, belakangan ini saya belum menyinggung tentang produk investasi yang merupakan salah satu favorit saya, yakni logam mulia secara umum atau emas secara spesifik.

Mungkin di antara Anda ada yang mempertanyakan mengapa? Karena, dalam pandangan saya, yang tentunya bisa saja keliru, rally emas di musim panas yang mendorong harga spot-nya dari $1179 di akhir Juni hingga $1434 pada Agustus lalu hampir (mendekati) akan selesai.

Meskipun terjadi kenaikan harian yang besar dan sungguh mengesankan pada Kamis kemarin, ke $1324, masih belum cukup mengubah smaller downtrend yang terbentuk sebulan terakhir ini.

Yang perlu Anda ketahui hari ini adalah sungguh sederhana: harga emas bergerak turun sepanjang tahun 2013 ini dan para seller masih menjadi pengendalinya secara mayoritas.

Emas masih akan mengalami tekanan terlebih dahulu, dan baru setelah itu mungkin kita secara hati-hati dapat melihat kemungkinan kenaikannya.

Jangan tertipu dengan pikiran bahwa emas sudah mencapai bottom dari tekanannya. Karena itu akan memakan waktu yang lama sebelum tekanan jual berhenti …

Namun demikian, untuk jangka panjang (antara 3-5 tahun), Saya masih yakin bahwa emas akan menjadi salah satu investasi dengan return yang MENJANJIKAN.

Itulah alasan saya hari ini akan membahas faktor-faktor fundamental untuk memiliki emas.

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com telah membuat sejumlah laporan luar biasa mengenai emas belum lama ini, mengenai perlunya menginvestasikan setidaknya sebagian kecil dari uang kita ke dalam emas.

Berikut 4 laporan terbarunya dengan sejumlah grafik menarik, yang menunjukkan betapa murahnya harga emas:

1)     “Nobody Knows What The F**k Is Going On…” (September 13th)

      Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

Financial circles in Hong Kong are buzzing today on the new Goldman Sachs projection that gold may drop below $1,000 an ounce.

And in merely suggesting such a death sentence for the metal, Goldman’s pronouncement pushed the paper price of gold contracts down $20+.

Many technical indicators underscore Goldman’s views. There’s very little floor for gold prices below $1,200, signaling that gold could gap down quickly.

Conventional wisdom is also moving against precious metals. Newspaper headlines are telling us that emerging markets are toast (India, Indonesia, Brazil) while the developed economies (US, Europe, Japan) are on the mend.

Of course, the facts don’t really support this.

  • Unemployment in much of southern Europe continues to soar, and Greece is imminently in need of yet another bailout.
  • The Japanese government’s most recent budget numbers indicate payments on the national debt totaling 22.2 trillion yen, which constitutes 51.5% of the government’s 43 trillion yen tax revenue.
  • In the Land of the Free, the US government is just a few weeks away from defaulting. Again.

Since May, in fact, the US Treasury Department has resorted to ‘extraordinary measures’ to keep the debt level firm at $16.7 trillion (the current debt ceiling) by using clever accounting tricks and confiscating funds from other sources.

As soon as the debt ceiling is raised, however, the national debt in the US will soar once again as these accounting tricks are unwound and reflected on the balance sheet.

For whatever reason, though, few people are paying attention to facts. It’s all about sentiment. And the sentiment right now is that the rich Western economies are back on top.

This is the central thesis underpinning Goldman’s assessment on gold: since the US economy is out of the woods, there’s no longer a need for gold as a risk hedge.

But as my friend told me last night over drinks, “Nobody knows what the f**k is going on…”

He’s a senior-level manager at a major international investment bank, and fully expects the banking system to go under again.

I thought about his candid remarks this morning when I read Goldman’s projection on gold.

But it does beg the question– is it time to get out of precious metals? After all, the momentum is moving in that direction.

Well, if you buy gold hoping to sell it at some point in the future and receive more fiat currency than you paid, then you might as well get out. Gold is not a great speculation right now.

Think about it like this– and take ‘gold’ out of the equation. If the market for widgets had risen 10, 11, 12 years in a row, and had shattered all records for long-term performance, would you still be betting on a rise?

Probably not. Just like housing (which everyone thought would go up forever), gold’s nominal paper price can fall. And it makes far more sense to speculate on something that’s in the dumps right now.

However, this mentality entirely misses the point of precious metals.

Why buy gold hoping to gain more paper currency down the road? Owning gold is all about trading away your paper currency into something that cannot be conjured out of thin air by central banks.

When stored properly (holding physical gold overseas and/or anonymously), there is very little counterparty risk.

The “price” in paper currency may rise. Or it may fall. But this is largely irrelevant.

When the hopes and dreams of the entire global financial system rest on the lies of politicians, the whims of central bankers, and the mountains of debt they have all accumulated, things could turn on a dime… tomorrow.

Gold is an insurance policy. It’s a form of money that you might never need to use. But should that need ever arise, you’ll be so much better off for owning it.

2)     On The “Lunatics At The Fed” Bill Fleckenstein Warns “As The Fantasy Dies, Gold Will Soar” (September 16th)

“Right now, people continue to believe that the same idiots that created all of these problems, namely the central banks, are going to somehow get us out of it with the exact same policies that got us into it,” is the subtle manner in which the outspoken Bill Fleckenstein describes the ‘fantasy’ in which most Americans live during this wide-reaching interview. “We’ve had so much artificial stimulus, and we’ve misallocated so much capital;” he adds, warning that Americans “believe in the lunatics at the Fed, and the rest of the Western world is that way (as well).” His conclusion is clear, “as the fantasy dies, then they will understand the need to own gold,” and if the Fed tapers and is forced to un-Taper, “more people will see that the Fed is trapped.”

Via King World News,

         How will the economy handle higher rates?

“It’s not going to handle it.  That’s why if the Fed tapers and the bonds start acting funny, they will end tapering because they will start thinking, ‘Geez, we can’t have this happen.’

Then, more people will see that the Fed is trapped.

      Via SHFTPlan blog,

Right now, people continue to believe that the same idiots that created all of these problems, namely the central banks, are going to somehow get us out of it with the exact same policies that got us into it, only at a much higher (aggressive) level of pursuing those policies.

We’ve had so much artificial stimulus, and we’ve misallocated so much capital.  And over the couple of decades we’ve been doing this we’ve kind of broken the economy and the financial system.  So, I don’t think you can worry about what’s on the other side.  We haven’t even gotten people to understand the charade that we have.

What the masses have done over and over again is to believe one more time that it’s all going to be OK … We are in a unique moment in history.  The whole world is printing confetti, and (yet) people seem to think that’s going to work out fine.

The longer you keep pursuing insane policies, the more you pile (them) on top of each other, the worse it gets … So, when the Fed can’t print money and we have to deal with this, it’s going to be brutal.

The fact of the matter is Americans, in the aggregate, don’t see any reason to own metal.  They believe in the lunatics at the Fed, and the rest of the Western world is that way (as well).  Obviously Asia doesn’t quite see it that way.  But it’s understandable why the average American doesn’t buy gold — If they believe in a fantasy, why would they need it?

As the fantasy dies, then they will understand the need to own gold.

3)     JPMorgan Says “Buy Gold” (September 21st)

The FOMC shocked markets by deciding not to slow its large-scale asset purchase program, after all the signals it had sent out in previous months that it would do so. While increasing policy risk, JPMorgan notes, this puts the asset-reflation trades back on the table. In their view, the main driver of gold’s performance over the past five years has been QE. As QE continued and inflation expectations remained subdued, the demand for an inflation hedge subsided, ETF positions were unwound and gold prices fell. However, JPM now believes, as a result of the Fed’s volte-face on tapering, uncertainty about future inflation may pick up and suggest a long position in gold. Of course, the question is – are they buying or is this a last ditch effort to drain what little remaining gold they have in their vault to their hapless clients?

JPMorgan On Gold:

This week’s surprise by the Fed in not tapering their asset purchases led to a 5% rally in precious metals. In our view, the main driver of gold’s performance over the past five years has been QE. Following the 2008 crisis, the unprecedented expansion of central bank balance sheets led to fears of inflation further down the road and resulted in very strong demand for gold, a large amount of which came via ETFs.

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As QE continued and inflation expectations remained subdued, this demand for an inflation hedge subsided, ETF positions were unwound and gold prices fell. Along with precious metals rallying, inflation breakevens widened following the Fed announcement, another indication that uncertainty around future inflation may pick up as a result of the Fed’s volte-face on tapering.

Additionally, positions are much cleaner now, following the unwinding of ETF positions, and physical demand from retail buyers in Asia has been very strong.

We open a long position in gold.

      Policy Risk Up.

      …

In one dramatic move, Mr. Bernanke has reversed this steady march to a rule-based policy and has brought discretion and flexibility back. The Fed may argue it never really gave up discretion, but we think the market nevertheless saw increased rigidity and thus a greater risk of policy errors.

By bringing back discretion, the economy broadly, rather than just unemployment, has retaken precedence. This has reduced economic uncertainty. To use popular terms, the Bernanke Put and asset reflation are back, while the end-of-easy money trade needs to await better economic data.

Some other relative-value charts for gold…

The Debt-Ceiling appears to have an uncanny relationship with the precious metal – the relationship should be clear why an ever-increasing debt load for the world’s reserve currency would require a rising gold price to keep pace with its endgame-implying collapse…

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And the world’s central banks are printing – not just the Fed – and the world’s central banks know that they need some anchor of value for their balance sheets. The ratio of global central bank balance sheets to the price of gold (i.e. how much gold is required to support the balance sheets of the world’s money-printers) appears to be at an extreme.

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In other words, for the ‘stable’ relationship between central bank balance sheets and gold to recouple, Gold would need to be back to around $1800 an ounce; but given the Fed’s U-turn and no sign of stopping at the BoJ (or PBOC for that matter) and we suspect Draghi about to try to unleash a collateral-free LTRO3, the price of gold will have to be considerably higher before the world’s central banks are ‘backed’ again.

4)     China Imports Over 2,000 Tons Of Gold In Last Two Years (October 13th)

China has just one thing to say to all those who engage in the now daily slam downs of gold just around the time of the London fixing, after 8 am Eastern, which lately have gotten so vicious they have resulted in “stop logic” market halts not on one but at least two occasions, keeping the price of gold delightfully low for all those who instead of selling, are looking to buy: “thanks.”

As the chart below shows, in the past two years since September 2011 (ironically the same month we wrote “Wikileaks Discloses The Reason(s) Behind China’s Shadow Gold Buying Spree” namely that the PBOC was quietly seeking to make the renminbi the new gold-backed reserve currency) the mainland has imported an unprecedented 2,116 gross tons of gold from Hong Kong (in addition to the hundreds of tons produced domestically), for the first time crossing the 2k gross ton import barrier in a two year period!

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Focusing on just the most recent import data for the month of August, seemingly unaware that all expert, hedge funds in the US have been “capitulating” on gold just because the momentum trade is no longer there, and because it somehow makes more sense to buy gold when the price is high rather than low, shows that China imported 131.4 gross tons of gold in the month, a 146% increase compared to a year prior, when the price of gold was substantially higher. Indeed, in a “shocking” turn of events, China actually buys more physical gold when the price is lower than higher. So much more, in fact, that August was the second highest gold importing month in history, lower only compared to March when it imported an unprecedented 223.5 tons.

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But what about exports of gold, and China’s net monthly gold needs. The chart below should answer that particular question. Net of gold export to Hong Kong, China imported 110.5 tons, the second highest net number in history, and second once again, only to March’s 136.2 tons. Year to date, China has imported a gross 997 tons, and a net 741 tons. Since this accounts for just two-thirds of the year in the history books, on a gross and net basis, China will likely import over 1500 gross and over 1000 net tons for all of 2013: an absolutely stunning record in gold demand by just one nation.

nico7Finally, putting all this feverish gold accumulation in perspective, here is the latest amount of official Chinese gold holdings as per the IMF. Incidentally, this is a number that has not been “updated” since April 2009.

nico8The unofficial China gold holdings number since 2009 based on our internal calculations: about 2500 tons higher, which would make it the world’s second largest official gold holder below the US and surpassing Germany, and rising at 100 tons per month.

Source: HK Census Dept

What Do the Charts Say?

Ada dua alasan mengapa saya berpikir summer rally emas akan berakhir.

Pertama, emas hingga saat ini masih gagal mengatasi level-level puncak Agustus.

Kedua, emas masih belum mampu mengoptimalkan rally belakangan ini meskipun dolar AS menunjukkan tekanan.

Jadi secara keseluruhan, kita masih akan melihat potensi penurunan besar harga emas.

Di sisi lain, kita perlu melihat jika emas mampu bertahan di atas $1300 dalam beberapa pekan ke depan, bisa saja akan mendorong kebangkitannya.

Namun untuk saat ini, hal tersebut terlihat berat. Yang jelas untuk saat ini BELUM saatnya untuk terlalu optimis …

Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective untuk beberapa waktu masih berpandangan bearish terhadap emas. Berikut penjelasannya dalam laporan terbarunya edisi Oktober 2013:

“Gold completed an A-B-C rally at $1,434.05 on August 28. This countertrend push was enough to revive the cadre of gold bulls, as indicated by a jump in the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) to 87% bulls.

Why Gold is Making a Comeback

– AP, Aug. 30, 2013

Artikel adalah headline AP tertanggal 30 Agustus yang mengatakan peningkatan demand emas di India dan Cina, yang akan menjadi faktor kenaikan harga emas berlanjut.

Namun saat artikel tersebut dipublikasi, harga sudah berada di titik akhir dari wave (4) dan mulai masuk ke wave (5) turun, yang potensial akan menekan harga emas ke bawah $1100.

Perhatikan bagaimana wave (4) bertemu dengan the lower line of the channel yang ditarik dari tahun 2005 sebelum mengalami reversal.

 

nico9“This is a common occurrence after a trend line break. The rally simultaneously touched the upper trend line of an A-B-C zigzag, a combination of resistance that stopped the advance cold.

While not expected, a push above the August 28 high would change the short-term wave structure but not the overall bearish trend, which is denoted by the wave labels on the chart.”

Catatan Pribadi: Saya juga memproyeksikan harga emas akan berlanjut turun, pada akhirnya akan menuju ke areal $1000-$1100, yang adalah complete retracement dari akselerasi rally tahun 2010-2011 saat mencapai rekornya mendekati areal $2000.

Kesimpulan

Menurut saya tema buying on extreme weakness akan dominan dalam beberapa pekan ke depan.

Sampai harga emas break down atau menyelesaikan pola penurunannya dan memberikan konfirmasi market bottom, saya akan sangat waspada melakukan perdagangan.

Dan yang terakhir adalah dari Jeff Clark, seorang Editor di BIG GOLD, yang menjelaskan pada para investor di awal bulan lalu: the gold bull market is not over, sebagai berikut:

A bullish response to the correction. Stampeding to buy an asset that’s crashing in price is not the kind of behavior associated with a trend that is over—just the opposite, in fact. Clearly, most bullion investors around the world see the corrections in gold as a sale, including China and other Asian nations.

Long-term buyers vs. short-term sellers. Someone who buys a paper form of gold typically has a short-term time horizon in mind. What have many of them been doing? Selling. The investor who buys actual physical metal, meanwhile, tends to have a longer-term time frame. And what are they doing? Buying.

Lack of physical selling. It’s not just the tremendous amount of buying that’s taking place; it’s still very difficult to find any significant amount of selling by holders of physical metal. This adds strength to what we’re seeing from long-term investors.

Don’t be fooled by what happened in the futures market. The retreat in the gold price is a buying opportunity for physical metal. And those who do so will be in strong company.

The bottom line for me can be summed up by Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association: “The dumping recently of holdings in gold exchange-traded products by overseas investors may not prove to be a wise move.”

Indeed. Let’s follow the bull within the bear and take advantage of the current sale.”

Di akhir tulisan ini dan di akhir pekan ini, agar tetap ceria, berikut adalah catatan lucu dari proses pemikiran politik:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

(Sumber: http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/2013/10/21/apakah-harga-emas-akan-melesat-terbang/)


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Nico Omer


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