Apakah ‘Default’ Hutang AS Adalah Suatu yang Tak Terbayangkan?

Written by Denny   // October 12, 2013   // Comments Off

“The American people are being bamboozled into believing that you have to keep spending for ever as neither side is truly looking for spending cuts. It is a philosophy of government that is to blame; Keynesianism, Militarism, and Interventionism, and the funny-money system that we use. All that has come together and the country is bankrupt and nobody wants to admit it.”

– Ron Paul

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“Borrowing to government spending/consumption BALLOONS the cost as compounding means you pay multiples of the original spending amounts. Government deficit spending is not self-liquidating as no income comes from the spending. The debt, runaway government growth and regulations are cancer cells planted into the respective economies which will always GROW until it collapses the economy,financial systems and currencies!

– Ty Andros, author of the TedBits Newsletter

 Laporan hari ini akan didominasi oleh shutdown pemerintahan AS dan debat plafon hutangnya.

Partai Republik menyandera kementrian keuangan dalam ‘peperangan’ untuk membongkar program tunjangan kesehatan ‘Obamacare’ dan memotong pengeluaran pemerintah. Dan Demokrat mengatakan mereka tidak akan bernegosiasi dengan Republik. Dan gagal bayar (default) adalah sebuah konsekwensi nyatanya.

Peter Coyne dari The Daily Reckoning belum lama mengatakan bahwa “Every time we hear about the debt ceiling debate it reminds us of Dustin Hoffman’s portrayal of Captain Hook threatening to commit suicide in the movie Hook.”

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Congress has its finger on the trigger…

Dan skenario film tersebut sebagai berikut …

Capt. Hook: No stopping me this time, Smee. This is it. Don’t make a move, Smee, not a step. My finger’s on the trigger. Don’t try to stop me, Smee.

Smee: Oh, no… not again.

Hook: This is it. Don’t try to stop me this time, Smee.
Don’t try to stop me this time, Smee.
Don’t you dare try to stop me this time.

Smee, try to stop me. Smee, you’d better get up off your ass… Get over here, Smee!

Smee: I’m coming! I’m coming!

Hook: Stop me,! This is not a joke! I’m committing suicide!

[Smee grabs the gun and pulls it away as it goes off...]

Hook: (breathing heavily) Don’t ever frighten me like that again.

Smee: (also breathing heavily) I’m sorry…

Hook: What are you? Some kind of a sadist?

The parallels are uncanny, wouldn’t you say?”

Memasuki pekan kedua shutdown pemerintahan AS, krisis baru yang tentunya akan menanti adalah plafon hutang.

Perkembangan terakhir dari gedung Capitol Hill adalah pemerintahan AS tidak akan buka sampai pembahasan plafon hutang menemukan titik temunya. Juru bicara DPR AS, yang dikuasai partai Republik, John Boehner, telah menolak pengajuan penambahan plafon hutang. Boehner menyatakan bahwa presiden AS harus terlebih dahulu bernegosiasi mengenai pemangkasan belanja.

“The votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit,” kata Boehner kepada ABC, “and the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us.”

Hal-hal demikian masih terjadi meskipun batas waktu pembahasan plafon hutang hanya tinggal 9 hari lagi.

Dengan kata lain, dengan berlanjutnya shutdown, fokus politik mulai bergeser ke tenggang waktu berikutnya: saat kementrian keuangan akan kehabisan kapasitas pinjamannya pada 17 Oktober.

Sementara Goldman Sachs memproyeksikan cash balance kementrian keuangan paling lama akan bertahan pada 31 Oktober dan bahkan kemungkinan lebih cepat dari itu. Dalam laporan terakhirnya yang berjudul “Two Deadlines Lead to Uncertainty”, berikut penjelasannya:

Unless Congress raises the debt limit, Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt from October 17, and it will deplete its cash by the end of October if not before (Exhibit 1). Unfortunately, the deadline for action in this instance has become less clear than in previous debt limit debates, in part because much of the commentary on the debt limit has conflated two different deadlines.

The first deadline is when the Treasury will exhaust its borrowing authority. The Treasury announced in September that it expects this to occur on October 17, in line with the projection the Treasury released a month ago. Since this projection is determined mainly by Treasury issuance expectations and flows in trust funds, rather than on day to day fluctuations in cash flows, there is little reason to second-guess Treasury’s estimate.

By contrast, the Treasury does not project when it will deplete its cash balance, though many external organizations do. Since the Treasury usually aims to run a cash balance large enough to cover unexpected payment needs or a revenue shortfall, the Treasury expects to have $30bn on hand the day it exhausts its borrowing capacity. The Treasury views this $30bn as the minimum prudent balance in light of the significant uncertainty in daily cash flows, though there have been a few instances (unrelated to the debt limit) in which the cash balance has dipped below $15bn. Most external projections of the debt limit deadline focus on when this cash is depleted. Our own estimate implies that the Treasury could conceivably continue to make its scheduled payments until the end of October.

However, the Treasury’s cash balance is likely to be so low after about October 25 that, depending on revenue fluctuations, the cash balance could be depleted on any day. At that point, it is possible that the Treasury would need to cease making payments in order to conserve the little remaining cash they would still have on hand.

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The partial shutdown of the federal government is unlikely to shift the date at which the Treasury depletes its cash by more than a couple of days in our view. The main effect of the shutdown would be to eliminate Federal employee compensation for non-exempted workers, which should amount to $400 million per day on average in reduced spending, or about $5 billion in reduced spending if it lasts until the October 17 deadline. It is possible that spending in other areas of the budget could slow, lowering spending slightly further.

However, it is very unlikely that the Treasury would see a large enough spending reduction to extend the date at which it depletes its final cash balance by more than a couple days. A number of large payments totaling around $60bn are due November 1, and it appears very unlikely that the Treasury would be able to make all of the payments scheduled that day absent an increase in the debt limit, regardless of the exact effect of the shutdown.

While we believe that congressional leaders take the October 17 deadline seriously, there is nevertheless a fair chance that Congress might not pass legislation to deal with the debt limit until after that date, because of the expectation that the $30bn cash balance the Treasury projects could be used to meet obligations for several more days. While this is probably true, if Congress does not increase the debt limit by the October 17 deadline, we would expect markets to interpret this as an increased risk of missed payments, potentially resulting in much more disorderly market activity than we expect to occur prior to the deadline.

Growth, Not Treasuries, Ultimately at Risk in a Debt Limit Mishap

Failure to raise the debt limit would eventually lead to a sharp reduction in spending and could result in a rapid downturn in near-term economic activity. A very short delay past the October deadline—for instance, a few days—could delay the payment of some obligations already incurred and would create instability in the financial markets. As noted in prior research, this uncertainty alone could weigh on growth.

But a long delay – for example, several weeks – would likely result in a government shutdown much broader than the one that started October 1. In the current shutdown, there is ample cash available to pay for government activities, but the administration has lost its authority to conduct “non-essential” discretionary programs which make up about 15% of the federal budget. By contrast, if the debt limit were not increased, after late October the administration would still have authority to make most of its scheduled payments, but would not have enough cash available to do so.

Using our cash flow projections as a guide, we estimate that the revenues the Treasury will receive in the month following the October 17 deadline would equal only about 65% of spending going out, implying a far greater fiscal pullback than will occur as a result of the ongoing shutdown. In essence, a prolonged delay would force the Treasury to rapidly eliminate the budget deficit to stay under the debt ceiling. (The deficit has significant seasonal fluctuations and CY Q4 is normally a higher-deficit period, offset by lower deficits or surpluses in other periods, particularly CY Q2.)

We estimate that the minimum pullback in spending that would be required to remain under the debt limit for one month without an increase would be equivalent to 1.7% of GDP (annualized).14 However, if the Treasury decided to set aside interest payments and make other payments in arrears, we estimate it would result in a pullback in primary (i.e., noninterest) outlays of 4.2% of GDP (annualized). In both cases, the effect on quarterly growth rates (rather than levels) could be even greater. If this were allowed to occur, it could lead to a rapid downturn in economic activity if not reversed very quickly.

Jadi jika ada di antara Anda yang berpandangan bahwa resesi AS mustahil akan terjadi dalam jangka pendek ini, sebaiknya pertimbangkan lagi …

What Do the Numbers Say?

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com dalam tulisan yang berjudul Debt Ceiling Chicken, menjelaskan bahaya yang kapan saja dapat muncul:

“With everyone’s attention turning to the debt ceiling X-Date of October 17 (or sooner now that the Pentagon is once again spending money like a drunken sailor following the recall of 400,000 workers or half of the total number furloughed), some are wondering why is the stock market not reacting more violently. The generic response that has formed is that despite all the fear mongering by Obama and the Treasury, even crossing the X-Date will hardly result in the apocalyptic outcome that so many predict as the Treasury can “prioritize payments”, i.e., paying some bills and not others, which as we explained before, means paying down debt obligations first, and everything else – whose non-payment does not constitute an event of default under US debt – last. In other words, if the US were to merely live within its means, it should have no problem remaining current on its interest expense even if that means slashing most other government programs.

While superficially this is correct, there is one issue that few are discussing, namely the mountain of short-term debt maturities between October 24 and November 15, which if unable to be rolled over – something that would hardly be able to happen in a time of quasi-technical default – would imply redemption and maturity of the debt without a subsequent rolling over.

The chart below lay outs the amount of Bill, Note and Bond maturities between October 18 and November 15: it totals a whopping $441 billion.

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As the Bipartisan Policy Council assessed, correctly, before, the Treasury must roll over well over $370 billion (make that $441 billion per latest calculations) in debt that will mature this year during the Oct 18 – Nov 15 period.

  • When a Treasury security matures, Treasury must pay back the principal plus interest due. Under normal circumstances, Treasury would simply “roll over” the security.
  • As one security matures, the principal and interest for that security would be paid for with cash from the issuance of a new security.

In a post-X Date environment, this operation may not run as smoothly.

Two elements of market risk:

  • Treasury will have to pay higher interest rates to attract new buyers.
  • It is possible, if unlikely, that not enough bidders would appear, forcing Treasury to either use cash on hand to pay off securities that came due or, in a worst-case scenario default on the debt.

Actually, it is very much likely that if there is fear that one or more short-term funding auctions will not result in a prompt repayment, it is virtually assured that the Treasury will simply halt new Bill issuance to avoid the panic that would result from ultra-short term rates soaring and destroying the Fed’s carefully crafted ZIRP (on the short-end) policy.

And according to our and the BPC’s preliminary calculations, just focusing on simply paying down this debt in the all too likely case that the rollover machinery grinds to a halt, means that the Treasury would be about $180 billion short of paying down just the amounts due in the table above!

So sadly, no. Those who are trying to talk down the severity of even a quasi-technical default, in an attempt to explain why the algos are oblivious to what may happen in ten short days, they have it all wrong. Instead the only logic for the lack of a selloff, is that once again, everyone and the kitchen sink, is 100% certain that should a worst case scenario transpire, it will be the “Mr. Chairman” who once again “gets to work,” and makes sure that nobody suffers any loss. After all, the New Normal is all about return; nothing about risk.

Kesimpulan

Sekali lagi kita dihadapkan pada masalah pembahasan plafon hutang yang menakutkan yang melibatkan 2 partai besar AS, Demokrat dan Republik.

Demokrat cenderung untuk meningkatkan spending, pajak untuk orang-orang kaya dan potensial dihilangkannya plafon hutang. Sementara partai Republik fokus pada pemangkasan belanja serta pembatalan undang-undang the Affordable Care Act.

Satu hal positif dari Republik adalah bahwa pihaknya biasanya tidak mau ‘berperang’ lama-lama, dan sangat takut dengan gagal bayar hutang, yang akan membawa mereka kembali kehilangan popularitas.

Namun yang kritis bagi pasar finansial adalah gagal bayar hutang AS ini akan benar-benar terjadi lagi. Meskipun pemerintah TIDAK AKAN mengalami default hutang-hutangnya karena cetak uang bisa terus dilakukan untuk membayar obligasi, namun retorikanya akan memberikan sentimen negatif di bursa saham.

Di akhir laporan ini, agar tetap ceria, berikut saya persembahkan gambar dan pantun lucu dari William Banzai:

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The derby is getting intense

Obama is on the offense

So here is the deal

Although it looks real

This game is a clever pretense

The limerick King

HE WHO CREATED THE MOTHER OF ALL DEFICITS…

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Obama’s a warrior for debt

His jihad’s a terrible threat

Taxing and spending

To Banks he is bending

Their crimes we will never forget!

 The limerick King

 Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

(Sumber: http://nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id/)


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Default Hutang AS

Nico Omer


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