Apakah Bursa Saham AS Sudah Masuk Wilayah ‘Bubble’?

Written by Denny   // November 18, 2013   // Comments Off

“There’s no one in the stock market today except drugged up day-traders and robots. This is utterly irrational. We’re in the fourth bubble inflated by the Fed in this century but now we have the greatest, mother of all bubbles. How could someone in their right mind believe that you can have interest rates at zero for nine years? That is the greatest gift to the speculators, to the 1%, to the leveraged traders, to the carry trade ever imagined! We’re almost on the edge of another explosion at the present time.”

– David Stockman, the author of The Age of Deformation

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“I will address the issue of a stock market bubble next week, but there is a tease and fascinating piece of data: Since 1990, the P/E multiple of the S&P 500 has appreciated by about 2% a year; in 2013, the S&P’s P/E has increased by 18%!”

– Doug Kass

Saya harus mengakui bahwa saya mulai merasa sedikit gelisah tentang hal-hal terakhir ini saat melihat data yang dirilis optimis karena berarti bahwa ekonomi membaik maupun QE akan dilanjutkan.

Hal Itu sungguh tidak akan mengganggu saya jika pendapatan perusahaan masih menunjukkanbooming-nya dan pertumbuhan ekonomi masih kuat, tapi tak satu pun yang terjadi.

Bahkan, kenaikan pasar ditunjang hanya oleh optimisme semata terhadap kelanjutan QE dan beberapa hal lain

Lance Roberts dari STA Wealth Management juga turut prihatin terhadap hal tersebut, yang dijelaskannya dalam tulisan yang berjudul “There is No Asset Bubbel?”:

 “While it is certainly conceivable that the markets could attain all-time highs. The speculative appetite, combined with the Fed’s liquidity, is a powerful combination in the short term. However, the increase in speculative risks combined with excess leverage leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable correction at some point in the future.

The only missing ingredient for such a correction currently is simply a catalyst to put “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace.

In the long term, it will ultimately be the fundamentals that drive the markets. Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of earnings and economic strength are not supportive of the speculative rise in asset prices or leverage. The idea of whether, or not, the Federal Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who can ill afford to lose a large chunk of their net worth.

It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now famous words: “Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.”

Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will adamantly say ‘NO.’ However, maybe it is precisely that tacit denial which might be an indication of its existence.”

Saya juga punya banyak laporan Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com.

Mari baca dengan seksama tulisan-tulisannya beserta sejumlah grafik yang luar biasa, dan bertindaklah yang sesuai:

1)    Buying Stocks On Margin At The Top – They Never Learn (October 24th)

      Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. Greed and hubris are the downfall of the mighty. Believing it is different this time is the mistake of the feeble minded. Watching the ensuing carnage will be a laugh riot. Seeing the blubbering of the bubble headed bimbos, pinhead pundits and Wall Street shysters when the inevitable collapse occurs will be worth the price of admission. If you think we’re wrong, pony up to the trough, borrow some money and buy Twitter on IPO day. You can’t lose.

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Of course, “this time is different…”

2)    “A Market Likely To Suck Everyone In To Its Last Updraft” (October 27th)

      From Sean Corrigan Of Diapason Commodities Management

      Material Evidence

At present the whole world is happy to treat the post-Shutdown US as a Goldilocks fable. Herein, such good macro numbers as do occur are either deemed an aberration soon to reversed as the supposed disruption of the budget dispute filters its way into the reckoning, or else they serve to underpin the assumptions of higher earnings to come. Weaker ones – like the just-released NFP – are also welcome for their prophylactic effect since they can only continue to disarm an already bedraggled flock of Fed hawks, leaving the rest of us hoarsely Yellen for more.

So, in the run-up to book closing, we may see everyone scramble out to their waiting Sopwith, silk scarf flapping jauntily in the slipstream of the ‘crate’s’ spinning propellers, to the exultant cryof, “Chocks away, Ginger!? Off will go our heroes, soaring not so much to a tumult in the clouds as to the wide, blue yonder of ever higher equity prices and ever fatter bonus cheques.

Ye Gods! Even that discredited old hack, Alan Greenspan – the man who bears as much responsibility as anyone for the hypertrophy of state-supported finance and thus for the havoc it continues to wreak – is at it, trying to tell us that because of a low ‘equity premium’ (read: ludicrously intervention-depressed bond yields), the ‘momentum’ of stocks ‘is still relatively up’.

Such a market is therefore likely to suck everyone in to its lastPlinian updraft no matter how stretched everything becomes and no matter how great the risk of being cast into perdition in the pyroclastic collapse to come. That said, one cannot fail to be tempted by the fact that margin debt is in the stratosphere (a new dollar high and a fraction of market cap only outdone in QI’00); sentiment is heavily bullish (the AAII Bull-Bear index is at levels only once beaten to any significant degree in the past since the start of 2006; while that same index multiplied by stock prices is in the 97th percentile of a quarter-century sample), put-call skews are high and vols are low.

In turn, this means that our favourite ‘Blue Sky’ indices (index levels divided by volatility measures, such as OEX/VXO) are off the charts. Indeed, that particular example is now 2.7 sigmas over a 28-year mean, in a 99th percentile which has only once been surpassed, at the start of 2007, before the first rumblings of the CDO cyclone and subprime tsunami were audible to any but the most perceptive listener. In Germany, the DAX/VDAX equivalent sits at a major, new 21-year high, a whopping 3.7 sigmas over its period mean.

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There are one or two other technical signals, too. The S&P500 ex-financials has all but completed a handsome-looking long-term profile during the DDIE. The financials, meanwhile, have retraced 50% of their LEH-AIG meltdown. Nasdaq has been on one of Didier Sornette’s exponential accelerations,climbing more ever more rapidly on ever shorter timeframes up into the top few percent of another clean, projected top mapped out off the 2009 lows. Looking further back in time, since that same 2009 nadir, the DJIA has ascended by an amount only exceeded in the run up to 1920, 1929, 1937, 1987, and 2000 – all of them major tops. Juicy!

What we must caution here, however, is that anyone tempted to lean into this particular wind must have the patience to wait for signs of even a temporary exhaustion before setting shorts. Critical, too, will be the discipline to stop out if and when those initial selling ‘tails’ start to fill back in, for fear that this is a signal that the mania has not yet ended and that the buyers of dips are still all too dominant.

3)    A “Frothy”, “Overbullish”, “Overbought”, “Overmargined” Market With “Not Enough Bears” – In Charts (November 3 rd)

Last week, Bank of America warned that “it’s getting frothy, man” based on the sheer surge of fund flows into equities. Here is the same firm with some other observations on what can simply be described as a “frothy”, “overbought”, “overmargined” market with “not enough bears.”

      From Bank of America:

“Daily slow stochastic is generating an overbought sell signal.”

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“Based on the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Bulls to Bears ratio investors are more bullish now than they were in late May and mid July. In terms of sentiment, this is a contrarian bearish condition. Since April, near-term peaks and troughs in AAII Bull/Bears have coincided with near-term market peaks and troughs.”

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Bears drops to 16.5% = too few bears;  As of October 25, Investors Intelligence (II) % Bears extended deeper into contrarian bearish territory below the 20% level with a reading of 16.5%. This is down from 18.5% the prior week and the lowest level for II % Bears since April 2011 – this suggests too few bears among newsletter writers. II % Sentiment is an equity market risk and confirms the complacent readings for the 5-day put/call ratios.

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NYSE margin debt at record high; confirms S&P 500 high; As of September 2013 NYSE margin debt stood at a new record high of $401.2b and exceeded the prior high from April of $384.4b. This confirms the new S&P 500 highs and negates the bearish 2013 set up that was similar to the bearish patterns seen at the prior highs from 2000 and 2007, where a peak in margin debt preceded important S&P 500 peaks.

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Risk: Net free credit at $-111b & back at 2000 extremes; Net free credit is free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts. At $111b, this measure of cash to meet margin calls is at an extreme low or negative reading not seen since the February 2000 low of $-129b. The risk is if the market drops and triggers margin calls, investors do not have cash and would be forced to sell stocks to meet the margin callsThis would exacerbate an equity market sell-off.

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Then again, do any of these technicals matter? Of course not: only the size of the Fed’s balance sheet does.

4)    Bob Janjuah: “Bubble Still Building” (November 5th)

      After a five month absence, Bob Janjuah is back.

      Bob’s World – Bubble Still Building

      From Nomura

Since I last wrote markets have largely followed the path I set out in June. At the time I was looking for the risk sell-off that began in May (and which was sparked by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s tapering comments) to result in the S&P falling from 1687 to no lower than 1530 in Q2/Q3, and then I expected the S&P to rally (driven by the Fed’s inevitable subsequent concerns on tapering, which I felt would see the Fed heavily water down its tapering message) all the way to the high 1700s/1800 in Q3/Q4.

By way of review: The Q2/Q3 sell-off stopped with an S&P low print at 1560 in late June; the Fed got so concerned about tapering over Q3 that it not only heavily watered down its tapering message, it abandoned it (for now!) altogether; the subsequent rally I expected has seen the S&P trade to a Q4 2013 high (so far) of 1775. Overall, my forecast set out in my June note turned out to be accurate.

Now that my Q3/Q4 targets have been hit an update is due:

1 – As per my June (and earlier) note(s), from a TIME perspective I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 25% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets. From a LEVEL perspective, my 1800 target for the S&P into the aforementioned ‘peak’ time window (Q4 2013/Q1 2014) has pretty much already been hit. As I expect marginal higher highs before the big reversal, and while my target for this high in the S&P over the next five months remains anchored around 1800, an ‘extreme’ upside target could see the S&P trade up to 1850. Put it another way – before we see any big risk reversal over 2014 and 2015, we need to see more complacency in markets. I am looking – as a proxy guide – for the VIX index to trade down at 10 between now and end Q1 2014 before I would recommend large-scale positioning for a major risk reversal over the last three quarters of 2014 and over 2015.

2 – The major themes are unchanged – anemic global growth/mediocre fundamentals, what I consider to be extraordinarily and dangerously loose (monetary) policy settings, very poor global demographics, excessive debt, an enormous misallocation of capital driven by the state sponsored mispricing of money/capital, and excessive financial market/asset price speculation at the expense of any benefit to the real economy. In the context of growth surely I am not the only person surprised at policymakers, especially in the UK and the US, where seemingly the only solution to massive financial market and economic failures is to resort to more of the same of what caused the original problems – namely debt-driven consumption, debt-driven asset price speculation, and the expansion of the ‘Ponzi’ that best describes our modern day economic ‘model’. Personally I do not think the recent mini outbreak of growth optimism is sustainable, primarily because this optimism is based on more leverage and more asset price speculation, which in turn is based upon a set of policies (easy money) that are not credible nor consistent over any ‘real economy’ time frame that really matters. Shorter-term speculation/trading gains are a different matter of course!

3 – Between now and the end of Q1 2014, when I expect to see a major higher high in the S&P in the 1800/1850 range, I would also caution that we could see an interim sell-off that may surprise.Specifically I feel that between now and year-end, especially over the rest of November, we could see a risk-off period that, for example, takes the S&P from 1775 to perhaps 1650/1700, or even as low as the 1600/1650 area. The key here is that, I think in the very short term, markets have priced out pretty much all the risk in markets, and have priced in pretty much all the ‘good’ news. As such I feel sentiment and positioning are currently very vulnerable, especially to any unexpected bad news out of China, out of the euro zone, out of Japan/’Abe-nomics’, and in particular on the confirmation of Janet Yellen by the Senate. If we do get a decent risk-off period in November, I would buy this dip on a tactical basis into the 1800/1850 S&P high target I have for Q4 2013/Q1 2014.

4 – Beyond Q1 2014, the longer term will all likely be driven by the growth data and the credibility of policymakers and what seems like an all-in ‘bet’ on QE as the solution to our ills. It is easy to argue that the major real impact of this policy has merely been to make the rich – the top 10% – ‘richer’, at the expense of the remaining 90%. It seems pretty obvious to many that while the last five years has all been about policymakers being ‘reverse hijacked’ by financial markets and financial market players (the ‘top’ 10%), the next five years HAS to be about a rebalancing towards the ‘real economy’ and the bottom 90%, at the expense of the top 10%. This shift in policy emphasis will not be a happy time for financial markets and speculators while the transition happens, but in the very long term will be seen as a major positive event, in my view. Certainly, the alternative (and current policy) of waiting for some mythical wealth trickle down impact to take us back to the seemingly good old (debt driven) days of the 00s is, in the long run, a delusion that is also likely to result in another financial market and economic failure to rival the very failure we are still, five years on, trying to address!

5 – As mentioned above, the VIX index at 10 would, to me, indicate that the time is then right to get seriously positioned for a major risk reversal, but until then any Q4 2013 dip (as per 3 above) would to me represent a buying opportunity into my expected high in Q1 2014. As a stop loss for this Q4 2013/Q1 2014 high, consecutive weekly closes in the S&P500 above 1850 would stop me out.

To answer the question I get asked the most right now: What in terms of financial assets, would I own NOW if I had to hold it for a year? My answer remains strong balance-sheet corporate credit spread (yields may be expensive, but spreads are not), Italian government debt, and the USD (esp. vs. JPY). As one never knows, I’d also have small speculative ‘long-risk’ positions in bank equity, via options, just in case the speculative bubble takes longer to peak and peaks at levels even higher than forecast above.

Regards
Bob

5)    Chart Of The Day: Bernanke Has Officially Created The Bizarro Market (November 6th)

Over the past year there has been some confusion about whether Ben Bernanke has managed to not only completely break the stock market (which, if one harkens back to hallowed antiquity used to discount good or bad news in the future, and “trade” accordingly), but also invert it fully. The chart below from Guggenheim will once and for all put any such confusion to rest.

As Guggenheim’s Scott Minderd points out “The 52-week correlation between S&P 500 returns and the change in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has plunged from 0.45 to -0.13 over the past 12 months. A negative correlation indicates that weak U.S. economic data tends to push equity prices higher, while strong economic data tends to send them lower.

What’s the explanation?

In a similar manner to 2005, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 200 basis points in a year,the current plunge in this correlation indicates that the expectation of continued monetary accommodation has trumped economic fundamentals to become the main factor determining the near-term outlook for U.S. equities.

In short: a broken, inverted market, driven purely and entirely by hopes of an even bigger liquidity bubble, and even more greater fools to offload to.

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And that, in a nutshell, is your “market.”

6)    IPOs Have Only Had A Better Year Once – 1999 (November 7th)

We previously discussed what happened the last time that IPOs were outperforming the broad market by as much as they are now but thanks to the exuberance of the last month, it seems we have broken another ‘record’. Year-over-year absolute gains in Bloomberg’s IPO index have only been higher once in history – in 1999; and current levels have been notable resistance for the exuberant spurts of the last 6 years

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The Bloomberg IPO Index (US) is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of stocks during their first publicly traded year. It includes all companies with a market value of at least $50 million at the initial public offering.

      (h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)

7)    The Stunning Magic Of “New Normal” Hedge Fund Leverage (November 8th)

The following chart, from the Balyasny Asset Management Q3 letter to investors, shows just that: the magic of hedge fund leverage in the New Normal.

Specifically, it shows that while BAM’s AUM from 2010 until Q3 2013 has increased only modestly (light blue), it is the dark blue bar portion that shows just how much “purchasing power”, i.e., allocation, has been deployed by the fund, thanks to the good graces of its Prime Brokers, who have allowed it expand its leverage from 100% to nearly 500%! Compare this to the peak leverage in the old normal which was roughly half: yes, that was at a time when the so-called credit bubble exploded. It has now doubled.

Nico-11From BAM:

During our soft-close period over the last two years, we have doubled the size of our allocations and our balance sheet while keeping AUM roughly the same. Our plan is to accept only enough new capital to allow us to keep our assets / notional dollars allocated ratio at 1 to 5.

We find that portfolio managers on average utilize about 70-80% of their maximum allocations – so $1 of assets to $5 in notional allocated dollars typically results in our target gross leverage of 3.5-4x.We will be very disciplined with this so please let us know as early as possible if you are interested in increasing your allocation next year.

Of course, when one is levered nearly 5x, being “very disciplined” is usually a good idea.

But who would be on the hook should things turn south, and the massive leverage blows up in the face of Balyasny and its LPs? Not Balyasny of course, but the Prime Brokers who provided the fund with 5x leverage. Prime Brokers who just happen to be the same TBTF banks that were bailed out last time around, and which will have to be bailed out once again as soon as the Bernanke levitation finally ends.

But most importantly, the chart shows quite clearly that without any new equity injections in the market, the one and only source of incremental “capital” injected into risk assets is, you guessed it, debt.

8)    The Anatomy Of A Pre-Crash Bubble (November 8th)

We previously highlighted Didier Sornette’s excellent work trying to identify pre-crash conditions in financial markets and John Hussman’s chart below suggests we are indeed heading that way. His warning, however, “Don’t rely on further blow-off – but don’t be shocked – risk dominates… Hold Tight.

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Via @Hussmanjp

Di akhir laporan panjang hari ini, agar tetap ceria, saya persembahkan sejumlah gambar lucu dari William Banzai:

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Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

 

(Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id)


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