Apakah Bottom Emas Sudah (hampir) Dekat? (Bagian II)

Written by Denny   // March 9, 2013   // Comments Off

“… the Federal Reserve was established 100 years ago. Since that time, the US dollar has lost 95% of its buying power. Paper currency is just that: a paper IOU from a government that is decreed by the ruling class to be worth something. History has proven time and time again that governments cannot control themselves and will eventually devalue that paper to the point of being worthless. Only gold and silver have held their value through thousands of years, seen hundreds of governments rise and fall, and hundreds of currencies collapse. For thousands of years, no government in the history of man has been capable of replacing its everlasting value with its current flavor of paper money. Gold is still considered the ultimate value and hedge against inflation throughout the entire world. A one-ounce gold or silver coin is recognizable value, no matter what country you may happen to be in.”

- Dennis Miller, editor of Miller’s Money Forever

Bott1

Quote of the month

“You see, Maria, I want to tell you I buy gold because I am fearful. I am sorry to say, Maria, you do not own any gold and you are in grave danger because you don?t own any gold.”

- Gloom, Doom and Boom’s Marc Faber in response to CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo’s asking him why he will never stop buying gold.

“Gold is forever. It is beautiful, useful, and never wears out. Small wonder that gold has been prized over all else, in all ages, as a store of value thatwill survive the travails of life and the ravages of time.”

- James Blakely

Sebelum kita melihat sejumlah grafik menarik, saya ingin mengingatkan Anda mengapa emas akan menjadi aset yang akan terus bertahan ketika aset-aset lain berjatuhan.

Laporan singkat yang pertama datang dari Mac Slavo, editor di SHTFplan.com, yang menjelaskan kepada kita mengenai: “The Number One Reason to Invest in Gold…“:

“With the U.S. economy having once again dropped into negative recessionary growth, currency wars around the world heating up through direct and indirect devaluations, and trillion dollar fiscal deficits piling on, how is it possible that the stock market, a key measure of economic health for many Americans, is touching near all time highs”

Marin Katusa, Chief Strategist at Casey Research, suggests that this effect can be traced to monetary machinations that are happening behind the scenes, where few people are willing to look.

“Because they’re printing and making the availability of money so easy, the market is really confused right now,” says Katusa.

The reality is that literally trillions of dollars have been borrowed and printed to bail out the United States and Europe, and much of that money has been injected into stock markets to give the appearance of recovery.

It is, at best, an illusory effect.

Given that more people than ever before are out of work, over half of American households are dependent on some form of government disbursement to survive, and prices for essential goods like food and energy are consistently rising, it’s only a matter of time before confusion in financial markets turns to panic.

And when it does, just as we’ve seen throughout history, only real, tangible assets will be of value.

One such asset that has always maintained real value in times of calamity is gold.

Despite arguments that gold doesn’t grow like typical modern day investments and simply sits in a vault gathering dust, according to Marin Katusa in a recent interview with Future Money Trends, there is one key reason for why it should be in your diversified basket of goods.

The number one reason to invest in gold is insurance.

Because of the massive liquidity and the dilution of, not just the US and not just Bernanke, but all of the major countries – they are a printing press… The main reason to invest is because gold is money.

Before they had fiat currencies – that’s the currencies like today… there was gold.

The Romans. The Egyptians. The Babylonians.

For thousands of years they used gold before they used these fiat currencies.

And, every time in history a fiat currency ends in disaster.

We have recent examples. If you look at what happened to Yugoslavia, or Zimbabwe, or even Germany with their fiat currencies… gold always holds true value.

That’s why we believe gold is a true, original money.

I think at least you can see with gold, it is the insurance policy to bet against the bankers.

Watch at YouTube

With all of this money – literally hundreds of billions of dollars – being thrown into stock markets by leading financial institutions that were just a few years ago on the brink of insolvency, there are massive price distortions happening across the board. This includes rising stock markets, one of the key benefactors of the Federal Reserve’s printing press.

Another not so positive effect (at least not for the American people) are ever increasing prices in the free market, something that Katusa says is going to continue:

[There is a] One hundred percent [chance of inflation].

You can guarantee these three things in life: Taxes, Death, and Inflation.

Inflation is coming… I just don?t know if it’s next week, or in six months, or twelve months.

But the reality is, it’s coming.

That’s why if you have a percentage in gold, you’re covered.

It’s an insurance policy.

When all fiat monetary exchange mechanisms fail, only one asset has stood the test of time as a store of wealth.

Gold is and always has been an insurance policy.

It will be the only thing left standing when the U.S. dollar, the Euro, the Yen, and other paper currencies are inflated to oblivion by their respective governments.

Make sure you have some when that happens.”

Selanjutnya, investment director dari PFP Group, Tim Price, menulis essay yang luar biasa bulan lalu, dan masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA, yang berjudul What Warren Buffett Doesn’t Understand About Investing:Bott2

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”
- Warren Buffett

“Warren Buffett’s aphorism has been rightly celebrated. But to be a true value investor, it helps to have values.

Courtesy of near-zero interest rates and global competitive currency debauchery, it is increasingly difficult to assess the value of anything, as denominated in units of anything else.

To put it another way, the business of investing rationally becomes problematic when a significant number of market participants are pursuing maximum nominal returns without a second thought as to the real (inflation-adjusted) value of those returns.

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass alluded to this problem recently when he pointed out that the Zimbabwean stock market had been the last decade’s best performer, but that owning the entire index would only buy you three eggs.

It is not just Zimbabwe. Markets everywhere, in just about everything, have now decoupled not just from their underlying economies but from reality.

There are signs that Buffett himself has decoupled from the value investing philosophy that made him the world’s most successful investor. Berkshire Hathaway is paying almost 20 percent more than Heinz stock’s all-time high in the deal announced last week, and the equivalent of 21 times 2013 earnings as opposed to the 16 times multiple which is the last decade’s average.

Say what you like about the business, but Buffett has not bought it cheaply.

To us, the more intriguing aspect to Warren Buffett is that he gives every indication of not understanding money. As he says, gold “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

Note that phrase: “It has no utility”. But utility, usefulness, purpose, value comes down to context. Context is everything. As Adam Fergusson bleakly put it in his moving account of Weimar Inflation in “When Money Dies”,

“In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes was worth, to some, more than the family silver; a side of pork more than the grand piano. A prostitute in the family was better than an infant corpse; theft was preferable to starvation; warmth was finer than honour, clothing more essential than democracy, food more needed than freedom.”

Buffett is chained to a rock of convention. He is hardwired to pursue money and he is very good at that pursuit. But he is not well programmed to consider the relative utility of money or its attributes as a lasting store of value.

Since 2000, the price of gold has outperformed the price of Berkshire Hathaway stock by over 300%. No particular surprise, then, that he should hate the stuff.

Likewise, many investors are losing faith in gold on the basis that its price in US dollars has recently declined. Context is everything. Express the price of gold in another currency, the Japanese Yen, and gold looks relatively buoyant:Bott3

So it comes down to what sort of money you want. And in an environment of competitive currency devaluation, it’s an important choice to make.

In making that decision, this helpful chart is used by fund managers at Stratton Street Capital to help assess sovereign credit quality. They suggest, and we believe, that it also has merit in assessing likely currency movements too.

Bott4

In a global deleveraging that is likely to persist for some years, the heavily indebted countries (the darker colors in the chart above) will desperately need to attract foreign capital to help service their heavy debt loads. And in order to do so, they will likely devalue their currencies.

But one currency it doesn’t highlight is gold. There is an increasingly disorderly currency war going on out there, and the advantage of gold is clear-they can’t print it, they can’t default on it, and there will always be demand for it.

Simply put, in the global currency wars, owning gold is like abandoning the battlefield altogether.

Setelah Clive Maund memberikan penjelasan yang meyakinkan dalam laporan sebelumnya, bahwa kita kemungkinan sudah atau hampir di dekat low (historis) emas, Toby Connor yang adalah penulis GoldScents, sebuah blog finansial yang khusus membahas secular bull market emas, yang menyatakan bahwa kita sudah dekat dengan Major Top in Stocks & Major Bottom in Gold:

“For months and months now I’ve been warning traders that QE3&4 were going to have a major effect on stocks. I knew that analysts claiming each new QE was having less and less affect would not apply to this latest round of quantitative easing.

I was confident the latest counterfeiting operation by the Fed would push stocks to at least to test the 2007 highs, and I really expect we will see a marginal break above that level sometime this year – probably by the end of the month. My current guess is that we will get a ‘sell the news’ type of event as soon as the sequestration can is kicked down the road and that will mark the top of this particular intermediate cycle.

Make no mistake though we are still in a secular bear market. Stocks are testing their all-time highs at the same time earnings are in decline, GDP has turned negative, and unemployment is starting to tick up.

It has been my expectation that the stock market would put in a final top sometime this year. I also expect this will be a very extended and difficult topping process lasting months if not a year or more.

Bott5

During this topping process I expect to see an inflationary surge very similar to what happened in the oil markets during the 2007 top.

Bott6

Notice the breakdown in early 2007 that convinced everyone that the bull market in oil was finished. This set up a massive parabolic move into the 2008 blow off top.

This time however I don’t think it’s going to be oil leading the inflationary charge. In order to generate that kind of move we need something that has formed a long consolidation similar to what happened in oil, and preferably an asset that has declined long enough and far enough to push sentiment to negative extremes capable of convincing everyone that the bull market is over. Those are the conditions necessary in order to generate a massive parabolic move over the next two years.

The only asset that qualifies in my opinion is the precious metals markets.

Bott7

The breakdown after the QE4 announcement, and now the extreme move into a yearly cycle low has, I daresay, convinced everyone that the gold bull is over. I would argue that it is impossible for the gold bull to be over as long as central banks around the world continue to debase their currencies. Gold is just creating the conditions necessary for its next leg up, similar to what oil did in early 2007.

A very similar pattern to what happened in oil is also unfolding in the gold market. I’m talking about the T-1 pattern that formed in oil during `07 -`08.

Here are the rules of T-1 pattern for those not familiar:

T1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.

Bott8

I think the gold chart is setting up to produce a monstrous T-1 pattern with a target around $3200 sometime in the late 2014 or early 2015.

Bott9

Investors just need to get through the bottoming process of this yearly cycle low. Considering that gold is now on the 15th week of its intermediate cycle, which usually lasts about 18-25 weeks, we should be getting close.

Actually we are probably closer than it appears by that previous statement. The last intermediate cycle ran a bit long at 25 weeks. Long cycles are usually followed by a short cycle. So I would expect this cycle to run a bit short at 16-18 weeks.

All in all, I expect a final bottom sometime in the next 5-10 days. And once that bottom has formed gold should be ready to break out of the consolidation zone it has been in over the last year and a half and get busy delivering the second leg of that T-1 pattern.”

Agar tetap ceria, di akhir laporan ini saya kembali mengetengahkan gambar yang sangat lucu – yang terus membuat saya tertawa saat melihatnya – serta pantun jenaka dari William Banzai:Bott10

These stoners are blowing some smoke
They’re hiding the fact that they’re broke
The only contagion
Is growth that they’re stagin’
It’s time drugged-up sheeple awoke!

The Limerick King

(Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id)


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