Apakah Bottom Emas Sudah (Hampir) Dekat?

Written by Denny   // March 5, 2013   // Comments Off

“If you look back through time at inflationary crises – from ancient Rome, to Ming China, to revolutionary France and America or to Weimar Germany – you’ll find that uncontrolled inflations are caused by overleveraged governments which resorted to printing as the easiest way to avoid explicit default (whereas inflation is merely an implicit default). Some argue that equities hedge against inflation because they are a claim on real assets, but most of the great bear market troughs of the 20th century occurred during inflationary periods. A more obvious inflation hedge is inflation linked bonds, but governments can default on these too. More exotic insurance products like sovereign CDSs, inflation caps, long-dated swaps or upside yield curve volatility all have their intuitive merits. But they all come with counterparty risk. Physical gold doesn’t. Indeed, during the ’6000 year gold bubble’ no one has defaulted on gold. It is the one insurance policy which will pay out when you really need it to.”

-Dylan Grice, Societe Generale (now with Eidelweiss)

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Jika Anda melihat grafik bulanan emas, Anda akan mengetahui chart pattern yang berkembang saat emas bergerak di kisaran $1,500 hingga $1,800, dan telah bertahan dalam kisaran tersebut selama 18 bulan.

Waktu yang akan bicara apakah kita bersiap untuk meroket naik sekarang ini, sehingga memberikan peluang beli yang sangat baik seperti yang pernah terjadi sebelumnya pada periode akhir 1990an-2000an awal, periode 2006-2007 serta di 2008-2009 saat krisis kredit. Yang menarik adalah peluang beli dalam 3 periode tersebut masing-masing berlangsung dalam 12 sampai 18 bulan.

Saya harus menambahkan juga bahwa dalam setiap periode tersebut, mereka yang menentang kenaikan emas mengatakan bahwa rangebound harga merupakan suatu bull market top”, namun pada saat yang sama harga emas melonjak sekitar dua kali lipat dalam rentang waktu ke depan. Jadi mari kita lihat apakah masih ada bagian besar di pasar emas yang menganggap perang luar biasa antara bearish Vs bullish yang terjadi saat ini sebagai kesempatan besar untuk melakukan aksi beli.

Saya kira kita akan segera mengetahui apakah memang bursa emas telah “menyapu bersih” posisi beli ketika terjadi penurunan signifikan hingga ke areal $1555 pada 10 hari yang lalu. Dari tekanan tajam ini kemudian harga emas sempat mengalami rebound yang cukup signifikan pula, dan dengan bullish consensus yang kini berada di rekor terendah 3% di kalangan profesional berjangka, maka aksi beli akan merupakan resiko yang rendah.

Laporan pertama yang akan saya ketengahkan pada kesempatan kali ini adalah dari Clive Maund, seorang ahli technical analysis yang website-nya (www.clivemaund.com) didedikasikan bagi para trader maupun investor yang serius pada logam mulia dan sektor energi. Secara reguler, dia merilis gold market update, dan laporan terakhirnya yang ditulis pada 26 Februari 2013 masuk dalam kategori yang HARUS DIBACA karena sangat jelas dan merupakan analisa emas yang sangat menarik beserta grafiknya:

“There is now such an overwhelming array of technical evidence that the Precious Metals sector is forming a major bottom, that by the end of reading this update you will, or should unless you are stupid, understand why we now have no choice but to turn strongly and unequivocally bullish on the sector. Up until now we have had some reservations, but these have been swept away by the latest truly extraordinary data.

You may recall that in the last update posted on the 10th we called for a drop. As you won’t need reminding, we got it. On its 7-month chart we can see that gold sliced straight through support at its early January bull hammer low and then dropped steeply into last Wednesday – Thursday, where a high volume selling climax occurred at a parallel trend line target. Gold is now quite deeply oversold, with many oscillators at extreme readings. This 7-month chart cannot provide the big picture of what is going on, only recent detail, so let’s now move on to the longer-term charts.

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The 2-year chart for gold is very useful as it enables us to examine the large trading range that has formed from the August – September 2011 highs in detail. After the initial drop from those highs we can see that gold settled into a horizontal trading range between clearly defined support and resistance at its upper and lower boundaries. Since the boundaries of this trading range have been tested on several occasions in both directions, resulting in significant reversals, they are clearly are great technical importance, and a breakout from this range will thus be an important technical event that can be expected to lead to a major move. For a variety of compelling reasons which we will soon come to, gold is expected to reverse to the upside from its current position near the lower boundary of the trading range and go on to break out upside from it. Here we should note that although a powerful new uptrend is expected to develop soon from here, we should not be surprised to see some backing and filling over the short to medium-term above the support, that may involve gold dropping a little further to about $1530. This is hardly surprising given that many sector participants are shell-shocked after the latest drop, so that some are in the frame of mind where they will sell for what they can get. Failure of the support at $1500 is viewed as highly unlikely given the current technical readings – if it happened it would have dire implications for just about everything, as it would imply that another 2008 style deflationary implosion was on the horizon, and it is considered unlikely that the money pumpers will permit that, although one day they may no longer have any choice in the matter. Now let’s look at the really big picture on gold’s long-term chart.

Bottom3On the 7-year chart we can see that after its latest drop gold has arrived not just at, or close to, the lower boundary of its recent large trading range, but also at a parallel trend line target. It is now in the zone that we had earlier defined as being an excellent point to buy ahead of the start of the next major uptrend. This is an excellent point for it to turn up to start the breakout drive marking the birth of the next major uptrend, and as we will now see, all the technical indications are that it is about to do just that.

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The latest COT chart for gold is at its most bullish for over a year, and this chart, which is up to date as of last Tuesday’s close, does not even factor in Wednesday’s big drop, so readings now can be assumed to be even more favorable. This is by far the most reliable indicator in our tool bag – whenever we have gone against it we have lived to regret it – and it was partly the then still bearish silver COT which enabled us to predict the latest plunge in both gold and silver before it started. After this drop Commercial short and Large Spec long positions (for Commercial read Smart and for Large Spec read dumb) have fallen dramatically and this COT chart is now viewed as strongly bullish for gold.

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Now we move on to look at a range of sentiment indicators which provide a raft of evidence that gold is either at or very close to a major bottom. We start with the Hulbert Gold Sentiment Index, which shows that sentiment is at rock bottom, there is only room for it to drop a whisker more. This indicator shows that everybody and all their friends and relatives are bearish on gold, which means that there is almost nobody left to turn bearish on the friendless metal. So guess what happens to the price when people start changing their minds? – that’s it – you’ve got it!

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Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The gold public opinion index is at even more extreme low levels, being at its lowest reading by a country mile since at least the end of 2008. This demonstrates that the sheep are all up at one end of the field, the bearish end – and we all know what happens to them.

Bottom7Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The Rydex have reduced their Precious Metal holdings to a very low level, as we can see on the following chart, which also shows that they are dumb as a door stopper when it comes to timing Precious Metals purchases. We can therefore take their low interest at this time to be another positive indication.”

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Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

Laporan kedua dari David A. Banister, pendiri ActiveTradingPartners.com dan chief strategist untuk TheMarketTrendForecast.com, yang yakin bahwa emas seharusnya menyelesaikan siklus low-nya di bulan Februari. Alasannya adalah dalam laporannya di bawah ini, berdasarkan pola-pola technical yang berulang terjadi dalam 5 tahun terakhir ini:

“Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February. My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month. With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views”

First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below:

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That brings us forward to today’s $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work includes Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns. In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much. With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare Elliott pattern termed the “Double Three” pattern. Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern. For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650′s as possible:

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This chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.”

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting adalah grafik berikut ini yang menunjukkan hedge fund interest di emas pada akhir 2012 yang merosot ke level terendah sejak dimulainya krisis. Mungkin Anda yakin bahwa saat ini penurunannya semakin lebih rendah …:

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Di akhir di tulisan ini, kembali saya persembahkan 2 gambar lucu dari William Banzai mengenai mantan perdana menteri Italia, Silvio Berlusconi, yang bernasib cukup baik dalam pemilu Italia beberapa waktu lalu untuk kemungkinan berperan kembali dalam kancah politik di sana:

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(Sumber: nicoomer.blog.kontan.co.id)


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gold market update


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